(From left) LDP President Sanae Takaichi and Nippon Ishin no Kai leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, at the National Diet, October 15 (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna).
このページを 日本語 で読む
On October 15, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Sanae Takaichi held back-to-back meetings with opposition leaders. She sought their cooperation ahead of the prime ministerial vote when the Diet convenes in an extraordinary session on October 21.
After ending its 26-year coalition with Komeito, the LDP now governs alone as a minority party. It is working to fracture an opposition bloc that has been inching toward a unified candidate.
The biggest breakthrough came with Nippon Ishin no Kai. Takaichi and Ishin party leader Hirofumi Yoshimura agreed to open policy talks with an eye to possible coalition cooperation.
"I asked, frankly, for cooperation, including the possibility of a coalition," Takaichi told reporters afterward.
Yoshimura, who flew in from Osaka for the meeting, said he "felt Ms Takaichi's passion" for building a working majority.
The parliamentary arithmetic remains tight. If the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), Ishin, and the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) vote together in the Lower House, their combined 210 seats would outnumber the LDP caucus's 196. However, they also have broad-based policy differences that could be difficult to overcome.
Meanwhile, for Takaichi to secure the premiership in the full Lower House vote, some level of opposition cooperation, or at least abstentions, will be essential.
Courtship of Potential Partners
Sensing greater policy overlap, the LDP has approached both Ishin and the DPP. Shortly after Takaichi's election as party leader, LDP Vice President Taro Aso met DPP Secretary-General Katsuya Shimba to explore collaboration.
Over two days, floor leaders also met repeatedly. LDP Diet Affairs chief Hiroshi Kajiyama conferred with Ishin counterpart Takashi Endo on both October 14 and 15, laying the groundwork for the leadership meeting.
While the DPP has kept the door open, it is pressing for concrete results first, such as raising the "income wall" threshold and abolishing the provisional gasoline tax within the year.
By contrast, Ishin showed more immediate flexibility by agreeing to open policy talks ahead of the prime ministerial vote. That tilt has drawn the LDP closer to Ishin while keeping lines open to the DPP.
What Ishin Wants — and Where It Gets Hard
LDP–Ishin policy talks were slated to begin on October 16. Reaching a deal is far from guaranteed.
Ishin has tabled about ten priorities, including cutting social insurance premiums and tightening rules on corporate and organizational donations.
It also wants to advance its "sub-capital" plan, a decentralization push to shift some national functions out of Tokyo, particularly to the Osaka area, to strengthen resilience and regional growth.
Cuts to social insurance paired with tougher donation rules remain particularly delicate for the LDP. The LDP's clash with Komeito over donation rules contributed to the coalition split. LDP veterans caution that "accepting everything Ishin demands would be extremely difficult."
Shared Responsibility
From a separate October 15 meeting with DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki, Takaichi urged her counterpart to "share responsibility" to deliver results during the extraordinary session. As a tangible step, she proposed a new working group on the DPP's flagship request to raise the "income wall" to ¥1.78 million JPY (about $12,000 USD), adding that the government would move to amend the law as quickly as possible so the change can take effect at an early date.
She also emphasized overlap with the DPP on foreign policy, national security, energy, and economic policy, signaling that cabinet posts or even a formal coalition are possible if they can agree on terms.
Tightrope Walk to the Premiership
Takaichi's agreement with Ishin to begin policy consultations marks a significant step forward in her bid to be elected prime minister on October 21. Still, the outcome is far from assured. Ishin's demands test the LDP's limits, especially on political finance. And the DPP is holding out for tangible policy delivery before committing to any formal arrangement.
In short, Takaichi has momentum. However, she's still on a tightrope. She must strike deals strong enough to win the Diet vote without conceding so much that she alienates her own party or undermines longer-term stability once in office.
RELATED:
- What It Could Mean If Takaichi Becomes Prime Minister
- With Komeito Exit, LDP Can Turn to Parties with Shared Priorities
Author: The Sankei Shimbun
このページを 日本語 で読む
