Takaichi Gains New Freedom After Komeito's Sudden Exit from the Coalition

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Since the start of October, Japan's political scene has been swept up in a whirlwind of dramatic developments culminating in the rise of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. In the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election on October 4, it was far from certain that she could defeat her rival, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. 

Then, just days later, Komeito's abrupt withdrawal from the coalition on October 10 sent fresh shockwaves through Nagatacho. Even so, fortune and timing appear to have favored the new prime minister.

Takaichi's Uncertain Rise

Speaking at an event in Tokyo on October 14, Takaichi reflected candidly:

"Apparently, I'm 'poor Sanae Takaichi,' the woman who became party president but might never make it to prime minister."

Without quickly filling the void left by Komeito's exit, even her prospects in the Diet's prime ministerial vote on October 21 would have been in doubt. 

Had Komeito thrown its support behind the opposition and written down the name of the Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro Tamaki, Takaichi's path to the premiership might have ended there. She would have joined Yohei Kono and Sadakazu Tanigaki, LDP presidents who held the party's top post but never the nation's.

A New Alliance Emerges

After Komeito's withdrawal, the prime minister struck an optimistic tone with those around her, saying, "This is an opportunity." Yet behind the confidence, she was likely wrestling with deep unease.

Then, to the surprise of many, Nippon Ishin no Kai announced it would be open to forming a coalition with the LDP, provided there was policy alignment. The proposed terms included scrapping five categories of export restrictions on defense equipment. These were measures that Komeito would almost certainly have opposed, had it stayed in government.

By a twist of fate, Takaichi and the LDP's conservative wing suddenly found themselves with a genuine opportunity to advance long-shelved policies. In an increasingly tense international environment, the security constraints once imposed by Komeito had finally been lifted.

Fate and Political Realignment

This shift was also made possible by Ishin's leadership change in August 2025, when Seiji Maehara was succeeded by Fumitake Fujita, a figure with a distinctly more conservative bent. While the new coalition was undoubtedly forged through earnest negotiations between the two parties, it is hard to escape the sense that fate, or divine intervention, as some might say, played a role.

Losing Komeito's electoral backing is by no means a trivial setback. Yet it also raises the question of whether the Komeito was actually delivering the so-called 10,000 to 15,000 votes to LDP candidates. With Komeito now out of the picture, some of those votes may well drift back to the LDP.

Komeito's Puzzling Exit

In some regions, observers note that even if Komeito has stepped away from the coalition at the national level, it will not be easy to sever 26 years of cooperation at the local level. It follows, then, that LDP candidates are unlikely to lose 10,000 or 15,000 votes across the board.

Seen in this light, Komeito's decision to leave the coalition just as Takaichi became LDP president is difficult to comprehend. It is almost as if the party had been waiting for that very moment.

In doing so, Komeito voluntarily relinquished the coveted Cabinet portfolio of Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, a post that had effectively become its own. It also sacrificed valuable opportunities for its younger members to gain experience as deputy ministers and parliamentary secretaries. Having chosen the path of an opposition party with far fewer avenues to shape policy, what does Komeito hope to achieve? 

From Coalition Partner to Opposition

While the LDP sets its sights on a return to conservatism, Komeito may in turn be seeking to rediscover its roots as the "party of peace." Yet once outside the coalition, it can no longer serve as the moderating "brake" on the LDP that it once was. Even though a partnership with Ishin still falls short of securing a majority in both chambers, it effectively grants the prime minister far greater freedom of action.

Moreover, if the LDP and Ishin move forward with their plan to reduce the number of proportional representation seats, the blow to Komeito would be severe. The party had been counting on proportional votes as the cornerstone of its future strategy.

"They've shared hardships with us for 26 long years. I want to express my gratitude."

The prime minister offered these words of appreciation at the joint meeting of LDP Diet members on October 21, shortly before the prime ministerial vote. Yet one cannot help but wonder — what, ultimately, were those 26 years of hardships for Komeito?

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(Read the article in Japanese.)

Author: Rui Abiru, The Sankei Shimbun

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