Foreign ministers of the Quad countries meet in Washington to discuss regional security on July 1, 2025. (©Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
With Sanae Takaichi taking over as the Prime Minister of Japan, a period of political instability in the country has thankfully come to an end. In her first weeks, PM Takaichi has shown her diplomatic caliber by successfully hosting US President Donald Trump in Japan and attending the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia. She followed those with the APEC Summit in South Korea. Nonetheless, one important initiative of which Japan is a part is the Quad, officially known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.
It is worth noting that the idea of the Quad was first mooted by then-Prime Minister of Japan, the late Shinzo Abe. Though it took off in May 2007, it floundered soon thereafter, following protests from China. It was resuscitated later in the backdrop of an East Asia Summit and ASEAN meeting in Manila in November 2017.
Since then, it has made rapid strides with in-person meetings at the level of heads-of-state. However, what begs the question now is whether PM Takaichi can help resuscitate the Quad, which seems to have fallen in importance after US President Donald Trump took office earlier in January, 2025.
The US has been tied up with the Russia-Ukraine war and developments across the world, especially in the Middle East.
In addition, trade tensions between the United States and India have not helped matters. It seems that the 2025 Quad Summit, which was slated for India, needs to be postponed. As of now, no dates have been announced.
What Can PM Takaichi Do?
The new Japanese prime minister can help resuscitate the Quad by giving it her personal push. Sanae Takaichi has already talked to her Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi and that is a good sign. She has developed good ties with her US counterpart, President Donald Trump. And it might just be possible for her to bring the US and India closer.
The Quad matters since the biggest threat to India, Japan, the US and Australia is the growing belligerence of China. Hence, these countries need to come together in the long term, in spite of the economic tensions between them.
In addition, ever since the Japanese PM's comments on Taiwan, Beijing has upped the diplomatic ante over Tokyo. Relations have worsened since then, with some in Beijing talking about a reduction in the number of Chinese tourists traveling to Japan. This should actually be good for Japan in the long run, since it has become overdependent on tourists from China.
What Are the Tensions Between the Quad Nations?
There are some tensions between the Quad nations, especially in the sphere of trade. However, these are not big enough to damage the ties between these nations.
In fact, there is a huge degree of trade between some of these nations and China. For example, between Japan and China. However, that is accompanied by a lot of tensions in the political sphere. Recently, the Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Japan, stirred up a hornet's nest in a very savage and crude remark directed at the Japanese prime minister.
There is also friction between India and the US over India's energy imports from Russia. Along with that is the tension over Washington's slapping of 50% tariffs by the US on imports from India.
The China Factor
Once in the past, the Quad petered out due to opposition from China. However, this time things are different. The US under President Donald Trump has locked horns with China over a host of issues, especially on the trade front. In addition, China-India relations will never be the same, especially after the deadly Galwan Valley clash of 2020 which led to the first fatalities between the two sides in almost 45 years.
PM Takaichi is seen as a protégé of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It follows that there is a fair chance the Quad will once again reach its potential under the Takaichi administration. The most common glue binding its four member countries is of course, a rules-based order the Indo-Pacific. This is a sine qua non for all four members, especially for their peaceful economic development.
The Wilmington Declaration joint statement agreed to by the leaders of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States in September 2024 makes this point. It notes:
"As four leading maritime democracies in the Indo-Pacific, we unequivocally stand for the maintenance of peace and stability across this dynamic region, as an indispensable element of global security and prosperity. We strongly oppose any destabilizing or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion"
The Road Ahead
The Quad has seen some notable successes. One was the Quad Vaccine Partnership during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Another major success is the "Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness," which tries to strengthen maritime security.
In addition, the same four Quad member countries have been regular participants in the Malabar naval exercises.
The Quad is too important an organization to be left to the mercy of disagreements on the trade front. Furthermore, there are many ways in which relations between the Quad nations can be taken to a new high.
Already the world knows that China is tightening its belt when it comes to trading with other countries, especially on the issue of exporting rare earth materials. Hence, the Quad countries can collaborate with each other to overcome such challenges. Significantly, all four member nations are democratic countries. This is the most important glue which should unite them in the face of rising threats from Beijing.
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Author: Dr Rupakjyoti Borah
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, Tokyo. The views expressed here are personal.
