Dr Manuel Muñiz
During a recent media roundtable in Tokyo, Dr Manuel Muñiz of IE University, former Spanish Secretary of State for Global Affairs, spoke at length about the shifting international landscape. He outlined the opportunities it presents for Japan–Spain relations and broader Japan–EU cooperation.
A Fracturing International System
Muñiz argued that the post–Cold War order is undergoing a visible strain. "We are seeing this in the trade space with the trade war," he said, noting that economies are becoming "less integrated" and the global economic environment "more challenging to navigate."
The trend extends far beyond economics. "It is also happening in the space of alliances and diplomacy," he noted. In Europe, this takes the form of "a weakening of NATO and of security guarantees provided by the United States." In Asia, he suggested, the shift is different in form but similar in consequences. He sees a growing realization that Washington's strategic attention is increasingly tied to domestic priorities.
This evolving US posture, "a refocus of America on defense of the homeland," raises questions for its allies. "What does that mean for a country like Japan, and how does that important alliance [...] look moving forward," he asked.
Even the multilateral system is under pressure. In his view, reduced US funding for the United Nations and its agencies reflects yet another sign of institutional decline.
These developments, he argued, create a natural opportunity, even a necessity, for deeper cooperation between Japan and Europe. "It does point…to the interest of Japan and Europe in doing more, and in doing more across the borders," he said. Both countries, he stressed, have an interest in maintaining "an open and integrated international economic system" and in reinforcing stability in their respective security theaters.
Renewing Security Partnerships
A recurring theme in Muñiz's remarks was the slow but steady retrenchment of US forward-deployed forces. While the mood has been more urgent in Europe, especially since Russia invaded Ukraine, he argued Japan will soon feel similar pressures. "We will converge on this perception in the not-too-distant future," he said.
Europe is already coming to terms with its new reality. European countries spend almost $400 billion USD on defense. However, spread across 27 countries, this produces "much less bang for our investment…than we should." As the US signals its desire for greater burden-sharing, Europe is being pushed toward a long-delayed strategic awakening.
For Japan, he argued, this is a moment to expand the cast of actors who contribute to regional security. European military visits, such as Spanish vessels and aircraft operating in and around Japan, are important "gestures." But Muñiz suggested they should evolve into something more enduring. These deployments are still "too haphazard," he said. What is needed is "a much more structured dialogue" on European engagement in East Asia.
This does not necessarily mean European forces in the Indo-Pacific. It may be more impactful, he suggested, for Europe to focus on stabilizing its own neighborhood — above all by managing its relationship with Russia.
Doing so could free up US assets for use elsewhere and also influence how China weighs the risks of aggression in Asia.
Either way, the era when the US was Japan's "plan A, plan B, and plan C" for regional security over many decades is fading. Japan, he said, should "start constructing other options… Complementary but…supportive of the provision of security" in the Indo-Pacific.
Free Trade and the Future of Liberalism
Muñiz was unequivocal when asked whether free trade can survive amid the perceived decline of neoliberalism. His answer: "Yes." Although the US appears to be stepping back, "America has not signed an FTA…for over a decade," the rest of the world has not. With the US accounting for roughly 13–14% of global trade, he argued, "if 87% of the remaining traders…wish to continue," the system can be preserved.
"Europe is highly committed to this," he noted, pointing to progress on agreements like the EU-Mercosur FTA. It is "too early to call the death of the liberal trading order."
This position aligns closely with Japan's, which continues to champion free trade even as other major economies retreat behind industrial policy.
AI Governance: A New Frontier for Cooperation
The conversation then turned to artificial intelligence (AI), with Muñiz outlining Europe's ethical, legal, and social priorities. As one of the institutions leading UNESCO's AI initiatives, IE University has been deeply involved in shaping ethical frameworks.
Europe's approach, he said, is rooted in the belief that "data ultimately belongs to the individuals who are producing it." This contrasts sharply with the US model, where "most of that data belongs to the companies that manage to gather it."
He added that Europe's AI debate focuses on who benefits from these tools, how they affect jobs, and how their gains are taxed to support the welfare state.
These differences, he argued, create fertile ground for Japan-Europe cooperation. There is "a lot of space for dialogue" on digital governance. And Spain is eager to "convene as many partners as it can."
He warned, however, that AI's biggest economic shock may come from labor displacement, especially "early career jobs" in consulting, finance, and law. This has implications for how societies build human capital and how universities train the next generation.
Building Bridges Through Higher Education
Academic diplomacy was perhaps the most optimistic part of Muñiz's remarks. He saw higher education as one of the most promising avenues for the Japan-Spain partnership. Student exchanges, joint research, summer programs, faculty mobility, and scholarship initiatives could all expand significantly.
"These agreements…might be 20 students in, 20 students out," he said. "That in a decade is 400 people." The cumulative effect, across businesses, governments, and research, can reshape bilateral engagement from the bottom up.
Japan, he noted, has historically focused its academic internationalization on the US. But with American international student numbers falling sharply, Europe represents an increasingly natural partner.
"I've become really fond of this kind of diplomacy," he said, describing it as "low, but very incremental" — and ultimately transformative.
Immigration and Demographic Futures
Toward the end of the roundtable, the discussion shifted to one of Japan's most pressing challenges: population decline. Muñiz offered a candid comparison between Japan and Spain — two countries facing aging societies but with starkly different demographic trajectories.
Spain's shift was dramatic. After the end of the Francisco Franco regime, Spain had "about 0% foreign-born population." Today, he noted, "the figure must be around 15% foreign-born." Much of this inflow came from Latin America, which he described as "a very successful wave of immigration" marked by shared language and cultural similarities that facilitated integration.
This demographic expansion, he argued, has been a major driver of Spain's current economic performance. Spain's growth rate today is roughly three times the Eurozone average, and "a lot of the current economic growth…is a product of a demographic boom… a product of immigration."
Japan's Looming Demographic Cliff
Japan, by contrast, is entering a period of unprecedented contraction. Muñiz spoke bluntly:
"You guys are losing just under a million people (every year). I'm not sure any of us has done the full assessment of what it means for a country to lose half of its population in 50 years."
He noted that no historical precedent offers guidance, not even the post–Black Death recovery, because this time population decline is happening "in a self-induced way." The psychological, social, and economic consequences, he warned, remain understudied.
He emphasized the enormous implications for real estate markets, service sector viability, innovation capacity, and public finances. Even immigration, he said, has limits. Fertility rates are falling "almost everywhere," meaning that global population contraction is approaching.
Still, he pointed to Spain's experience as evidence that proactive, well-integrated immigration can support growth, though Japan's linguistic and cultural context makes the challenge more complex.
A Shared Future in an Uncertain World
The roundtable ended on a reflective note. Despite the gravity of his analysis, Muñiz stressed that these challenges also create opportunities for countries willing to rethink old assumptions and forge new partnerships.
His closing sentiment captured the central theme of his visit, and the message he hopes Japan will hear:
"I think there is a real and historic window for us to do more."
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Author: Daniel Manning
