US President Donald Trump meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas, in Panmunjom, South Korea, June 30, 2019. (©REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)
In 2026, Japan must secure the immediate and complete return of all its citizens abducted by North Korea. While both the domestic and international environments have grown increasingly uncertain, I believe an opportunity to achieve this will emerge.
Reflecting on the developments of 2025, it's also essential to look ahead and consider what this year may hold.
One encouraging development was the inauguration of governments in both Japan and the United States that have demonstrated a clear willingness to advance the resolution of the abductions issue.
Trump-Takaichi Take the Stage
In January 2025, the second Donald Trump administration was launched in the US. And in October, the Sanae Takaichi Cabinet was formed in Japan.
Trump visited Japan the following week on an official visit. Meeting with the families of the abductees, he stated, "[We will] do everything within our power" to resolve the abductions issue, adding that he will "discuss the abduction issue at the next US-North Korea summit."
Although there were indications that securing time for the President to meet with the families would be difficult due to scheduling constraints, it ultimately became possible thanks to last-minute adjustments by government officials, including Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Alongside that, Takaichi appointed Minoru Kihara, who actively raised awareness of the issue in his hometown of Kumamoto even before entering politics, as Chief Cabinet Secretary and Minister in Charge of the Abductions Issue.
At the national rally in November, Kihara unequivocally said, "We will not hesitate to use any means necessary to resolve this issue." He added, "We have already conveyed to North Korea our intention to hold a summit meeting."
A Father's Last Plea
There was also deeply regrettable news. Akihiro Arimoto, the father of abductee Keiko Arimoto, passed away in February 2025 at the age of 96.
Keiko was 23 years old when North Korean agents abducted her. Her father was 66 at the time.
One image remains indelibly etched in my mind. Just two months before his death, in December 2024, Arimoto traveled from his home in Kobe to Tokyo in a wheelchair and demanded of then–Minister in Charge of the Abductions Issue Yoshimasa Hayashi, "Show us a path to resolution."
Summit Timing in Focus
What, then, will this year bring? For families of those abducted, the central question remains the timing of a US–North Korea summit.
President Trump is scheduled to visit China in April for talks with President Xi Jinping, and may also stop in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and other countries before or after that trip.
The Kim Jong Un regime is likely seeking to use this window to invite Trump to Pyongyang.
North Korea's economy deteriorated sharply in 2025, with reports of starvation emerging from rural areas. Meanwhile, dissatisfaction with the regime has grown, including the appearance of organized anti-government activity within the military and on university campuses.
Against this backdrop, Kim is likely seeking sanctions relief at a US–North Korea summit, followed immediately by a North Korea–Japan summit aimed at securing large-scale economic assistance. In his calculus, these two summits together represent a pathway to the regime's survival.
With a possible summit looming in April, Tokyo must again ensure that it is fully prepared.
Trump has been pressing Kim Jong Un to make progress on the abductions issue, explicitly linking it to Japan's potential provision of economic support.
It's therefore essential for Tokyo to firmly establish, together with Trump, the precise conditions under which Japan would offer such support. Those conditions must be unequivocal: the immediate and complete return of all abductees.
Clear Conditions, Clear Returns
If the immediate repatriation is achieved, the Japanese government would not oppose the provision of humanitarian assistance, the lifting of its unilateral sanctions, or the initiation of negotiations toward the normalization of bilateral relations.
Nor would Tokyo seek to extract information from the victims for use in anti–North Korea activities.
Prime Minister Takaichi is scheduled to visit Washington in March, ahead of President Trump's trip to China. This will be an opportunity to build personal rapport. She should use the visit to thoroughly explain Japan's conditions and considerations regarding the abductions issue.
Silence After the Storm
True, the international situation is undeniably chaotic. Yet some developments are, in fact, favorable to resolving the abductions issue.
Early in the new year, the Trump administration used special forces to capture and detain Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
North Korean media, however, have so far made no mention of the incident to their citizens, despite repeatedly highlighting the friendly relationship between Maduro and Kim Jong Un until late last year.
On January 4, the Korean Central News Agency reported that "The United States has brutally trampled upon Venezuela's sovereignty," in reference to the military operation against Maduro.
Yet this agency is largely intended for external audiences and is not accessible to ordinary North Korean citizens. The regime may be wary of widely acknowledging the reality that a sovereign leader can be removed by the United States at will.
A major reason the US military operation succeeded was that American forces had real‑time intelligence on Maduro's location. It's believed that an inside source helped pinpoint his movements and made the rapid capture possible.
Assassination Angst
This development must have reminded Kim Jong Un of the 2017 crisis. At that time, the North Korean program to develop nuclear missiles capable of reaching the US mainland was entering its final stages.
The Trump administration, in its first term, was openly preparing a potential operation to assassinate the North Korean leader.
US intelligence had secured collaborators within the Guard Command, the unit responsible for Kim's security. These collaborators provided several senior members of the command with modified smartphones that could relay their locations via satellite, allowing precise tracking of Kim's movements.
However, in 2018, it was discovered that 200 modified smartphones had been smuggled in through a trading company under the same Command's umbrella, which was also earning foreign currency in Southeast Asia. The existence of the collaborators was exposed, and the operation failed.
Mike Pompeo, then director of the Central Intelligence Agency, wrote in his memoir that during his visit to North Korea in the spring of 2018, Kim Jong Un's first words were, "I know you've been trying to kill me."
Pompeo reportedly replied, "I'm still trying (to) kill you."
There is little doubt that Kim's fear of assassination played a role in his decision to agree to the US–North Korea summit meetings in 2018 and 2019.
North Korea only moves under strong pressure. Washington's operation against Venezuela may have reminded Kim that Trump is a leader who will act decisively. To reinforce perceptions of American resolve and threat, the US president would even target another head of state.
The latest Venezuela gambit, therefore, could have a positive influence on negotiations aimed at rescuing the abductees.
Countdown to Action
On January 14, reports emerged that Prime Minister Takaichi was considering dissolving the House of Representatives. The dissolution is expected to take place at the opening of the regular Diet session on January 23.
Among the Japanese families of North Korean abduction victims, the only parent generation still living is that of Megumi Yokota, her mother, Sakie. She will turn 90 next month.
Megumi was snatched by North Korean agents when she was just 13 years old.
For them and for the other victims, time is running out. Needless to say, the abductions issue is a challenge Japan must address proactively.
The upcoming election campaign needs to spark vigorous debate to ensure the abductions issue is never delayed.
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- Trump, Venezuela, and Tokyo's Constitutional Moment
Author: Tsutomu Nishioka, visiting professor at Reitaku University
(Read this in Japanese)
