America, Ask Japan: China Is Closer Than You Think

In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek this July, American presidential candidate Donald Trump said: "Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we're no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn't give us anything. Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It's 68 miles from China." 

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The fate of Taiwan might not concern Trump that much. However, Japan likely sees the situation through a very different lens.

Taipei is around 1,300 miles from Tokyo, 390 miles from Naha, Okinawa, and only 117 miles from Yonaguni. The Senkaku Islands, in Ishigaki City, are near Yonaguni. And under current US policy, security guarantees apply to the Senkaku Islands. 

Or is Japan also too far?

China Knows Us, But Do We Know China?

Know yourself. Know your enemy, and you will never lose a battle.

If the West is indeed locked in an existential contest with enemies of democracy, the above oft-quoted passage from Sun Tzu's The Art of War remains more relevant than ever.

The sad fact is, however, that the number of Americans studying in China has plummeted in recent years. It has gone from around 11,000 in 2019 to only 800 in 2024. That is up marginally from 200 during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the US might lose a generation of China experts. 

By comparison, there are nearly 300,000 Chinese students in the United States. And all Chinese students study English in school. 

Several factors are behind the decline in US students studying China, whether in that country or at home. Not the least of these is Xi Jinping's crackdown on intellectual freedom. What is the point of studying to be a China expert in a sensitive field such as contemporary politics if you know that you will be refused a visa if you offend the Chinese authorities? 

Political Polarization Again

At home, political polarization has also had a baneful effect. It has made some students reluctant to have anything to do with China. Have we forgotten the damage done during the McCarthyite "Red Scare" of the 1950s when baseless attacks destroyed the careers of several China specialists at the State Department?

What about high school teachers who take their students to China on study trips? If they are going to be investigated in Congress for their "close ties" to China, that would open up a Pandora's box of unsubstantiated allegations. 

There are other more worthy candidates for investigation. How about investigating the EV carmaker who holds three citizenships and whose operations in China have received hundreds of millions of dollars in support from the Chinese government?

'In McCarthy's Shadow'

Richard L Walker was an expert on East Asia who served as US Ambassador to South Korea under Ronald Reagan. He wrote a 1998 essay for The National Interest titled "China Studies in McCarthy's Shadow: A Personal Memoir." In it, he stated: "For several reasons, the effects of McCarthyism were particularly virulent in the field of China studies in American universities."

Many liberals had a romantic view of the Chinese Communists. Meanwhile, many of their opponents swallowed undigested the propaganda served up by the terminally corrupt Kuomintang. That entity itself was a Leninist party. 

Personal and professional antagonisms further poisoned the climate. The outbreak of the Korean War and China's entry into that conflict made it all the harder to take a detached view on issues relating to US policies in East Asia, especially concerning China. Divergent academic voices were not just wrong, they were evil and dangerous.

Walker was one of those who got caught in the crossfire. His book China Under Communism: The First Five Years came out in 1955. To a large extent, it was based on interviews with refugees from Mao's China. Rather than deal with the contents of the book, his critics castigated Walker as an incorrigible Cold War warrior.

The point is that now more than ever, the gathering and analysis of intelligence should be as nonpartisan as possible. Different voices, including vehemently dissenting voices, need to be heard to avoid disaster. 

Caught Up In Mistaken Views

That is also a lesson that needs to be taken from the 2003 invasion of Iraq under President George W Bush. Before the invasion, the intelligence community concurred with the administration's mistaken view that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. That was not because they engaged in some kind of plot and fabricated evidence, but because they got caught up in the developing war fever. 

In the rush to war, too much credence was given to unreliable sources. Confirmation bias was rampant, alternative hypotheses were not tested, and negative evidence was ignored. Reforms were subsequently introduced, but the independence of the intelligence community is now being threatened from a new source. 

Dangers From Within

Donald Trump has promised "to demolish the deep state." He alleges it frustrated the implementation of policies during his first administration. Their ranks apparently include intelligence professionals and military leaders. However, he should be careful about what he wishes for. 

Currently, nearly three million US government employees are appointed through merit-based hiring that relies on competitive exams. They cannot be fired except for a limited number of specific reasons, including misconduct. In addition, around 4,000 Federal employees are designated by the president as holding policy-related positions. These must be confirmed by the Senate. 

The plan that Trump and his advisors are reportedly considering would give the president the power to hire and fire tens of thousands of members of the civil service regardless of how well they were performing their jobs. Their background and expertise would be replaced by new hires who are dedicated loyalists. In short, it risks establishing a spoils system based on ideological perspectives.

However, if US-China policy were to be decided without the benefit of the diverse voices and insights of civil service experts, it would be dangerous for the United States, and Japan. And it would be dangerous for the world. 

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Author: John Carroll

John Carroll is a Kyoto-based freelance writer and JAPAN Forward contributor. He is currently writing a book on the religious traditions and superstitions of Japan's ancient capital.