President Yoon Suk-yeol delivers a speech at the South Korean government's Liberation Day ceremony in Seoul on August 15. (©Kyodo)
Every year in the middle of summer, the president of the Republic of Korea (South Korea) has the opportunity to deliver a speech on issues of national importance. On July 15, President Yoon Suk-yeol devoted most of this annual keynote address to the topic of North Korea.
He spoke of "the frozen kingdom of the North, where people are deprived of freedom and suffer from poverty and starvation."
Reunification with the South was possible, he assured his listeners. However, only if the people of North Korea rejected their deceitful government and its propaganda.
Yoon claimed that he would keep the door open to the possibility of inter-Korean dialogue. He even mooted the idea of setting up a North-South working group. Nonetheless, in reality, he is sticking to a hardline position, offering no negotiations or concessions.
The North is in no mood to talk, either. It has sent thousands of balloons filled with trash across the border. Furthermore, Kim Jong Un recently described South Korea as his country's "invariable principal enemy."
Glaring Omission
There was a glaring omission in the president's speech. That was the topic of the diplomatic relationship between South Korea and Japan.
In the past, President Yoon has been an enthusiastic advocate of reconciliation and rapprochement. A year ago in August 2023, he took part in a summit at Camp David in the United States with Joe Biden and Fumio Kishida.
At the time, President Biden claimed that the three countries had "made history." He praised the Asian leaders for their "political courage."
The Camp David meeting included a pledge by the trilateral partners to work closely to counter threats from North Korea. This earned kudos for President Yoon. So why didn't he talk about this significant diplomatic achievement in this year's speech?
The most likely explanation is that he wanted to avoid a backlash from his political opponents, some of whom are openly hostile towards Japan.
Anti-Japanese Alliance
Observers of South Korea are concerned about a disturbing rise in extremism. There is now a political group calling itself the Alliance of Anti-Japanese Independence Organizations. Its members have criticized Mr Yoon for appointing people holding moderate views toward Japan to head historical and educational institutions.
They regard rapprochement with Tokyo as "unpatriotic".
This faction is only able to see Japan as it's presented in Korean history books. The focus is always on the colonial period, which ended 79 years ago. They believe Japan needs to make an apology and pay more compensation to people in Korea. The Japanese government has repeatedly said that these matters were settled through a treaty that normalized relations in 1965.
People who whip up anti-Japan sentiment risk undermining South Korea's own security.
Toward a Safer Neighborhood for Both Countries
Prime Minister Kishida has consistently welcomed dialogue with Yoon Suk-yeol because he believes that military cooperation between Japan and South Korea will create a safer neighborhood. This policy had the full backing of the United States. President Biden declared himself as a steadfast ally of both sides.
Meanwhile, the political situation in Japan is currently in flux. Mr Kishida has announced he will not stand for reelection as the leader of the LDP. A new Japanese Prime Minister will therefore be in place by the start of October.
Candidates for the job are starting to debate how to handle relations with South Korea, as well as setting out their positions on defense and security.
Economic Rivals
In fact, President Yoon did mention Japan briefly in his speech but his remarks were solely about economics.
"Last year, Korea's per capita income surpassed Japan's for the first time and is expected to reach $40,000 by 2026," he said, before adding: "In the first half of this year, the export gap between Korea and Japan hit a historic low of $3.5 billion."
These comments suggest that the president is sensitive to criticism that the South Korean economy has faltered under his leadership. It contracted in the second quarter of 2024 and many economists have issued warnings about the country's long-term growth prospects.
The "export gap" mentioned by the president indicates that Japan ranks fifth in the world in terms of its overall exports. Meanwhile, South Korea is number seven.
This is an impressive achievement. The country's semiconductor industry, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is thriving. It accounts for up to 20% of South Korean exports.
Korean arms manufacturers have also been flourishing in the global market, partly as a result of a less stable security environment.
China's Economic Impact
When it comes to the automotive sector, South Korea and Japan have long been rivals. But now manufacturers from both countries are facing intense competition from China, which has used state money to subsidize electric vehicle manufacturing.
South Korea's finance minister has warned that its businesses need to urgently adapt. He points out that China has gained market share from South Korea's country's biggest exporters.
Choi Sang-mok also said in an interview with the Financial Times that South Korea had gone from being a beneficiary of Chinese growth to an economic rival.
President Yoon said nothing about China in his annual speech. That feels like another major omission.
The next time the president meets a Japanese leader, the joint challenge from China should be openly discussed. Unlike fading memories of past hostilities, the rise of China is the most pressing foreign policy issue in East Asia today.
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Author: Duncan Bartlett, Diplomatic Correspondent
Mr Bartlett is the Diplomatic Correspondent for JAPAN Forward and a Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute. Read his other articles and essays.
