Chaos in Bangladesh and Its Implications for South Asia

The fall of the Bangladesh Awami League and Sheikh Hasina's government in Dhaka earlier in August was replete with scenes of rampant and gruesome violence. There were mass killings of ordinary people, and properties were set ablaze. 

Sheikh Hasina fled to India and continues to reside in hiding on the outskirts of the capital, Delhi. The shocking scenes of the demolition of Bangladesh's slain founder, Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rahman's statue and his memorials will be etched forever in the minds of Bangladeshis as well as many South Asians. 

It should be remembered that Mujibur Rahman was assassinated in August 1975 at his residence during a military coup. His entire family was killed, except for Sheikh Hasina and her sister.

Election Controversies and Fallout

In January 2024, it was declared that Hasina had won her fifth term as Bangladeshi prime minister after the opposition boycotted the vote. With the voter turnout reportedly as low as 40%, there was a general strike over what was termed a "sham election." 

Perhaps labeling the protesting students as "razakars" (literally "volunteers") was an incorrect move by Hasina. Razakar is often interpreted as being a loaded term evoking memories of war crimes. These include the killing and rape of the Bengali population and other ethnic minorities in 1971.

Irrespective of the arguments made in favor and against the Sheikh Hasina government, the continuing violence and anarchy across Bangladesh is a disturbing sign regarding its future. 

Dhaka was performing well economically, although this report card came at the huge cost of its political and democratic freedom. Now, 84-year-old economist Muhammad Yunus has become head of the interim government. A known critic of Hasina, life seems to have come full circle. Nobel laureate Yunus is globally recognized as the "father of microfinance" from the time he founded the Grameen (Rural) Bank. 

Yunus was persecuted by the Hasina regime. After Hasina was ousted, he accused her of destroying her father, Mujibur Rahman's legacy. "Bangladesh is liberated, we are a free country now," Yunus said.

Geostrategic Ramifications

Bangladesh is the world's eighth-most populous country, with more than 171 million people. The internal instability is bound to have large geostrategic ramifications throughout South Asia. The latest political casualty, Bangladesh, comes at a time when the Indian Ocean rim line nations (IOR) are already facing unprecedented political instability. 

Beginning with Myanmar and now Bangladesh in the east, Pakistan in the west, and Sri Lanka and Maldives in the south, the inherent geostrategic challenges are evident. From the momentous political upheaval in Dhaka to the fluid political scenario in Colombo, Male, and Yangon, these developments showcase the intense weakening of South Asian democracies around the IOR.

The Indian Ocean's vitality to global trade and security is rising. At such a time, the risky political geography of the region throws up serious challenges to crafting tangible geostrategic and geoeconomic policies for the region. Be it creating spheres of influence or wrestling with encroachment politics, the IOR is replete with interventionist moves. 

Besides, the geopolitical contest between the United States and China to gain domination of the Global South is rising unprecedentedly. The US has quickened its pace in competing with China over influence in the Global South in recent years, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.

A Geopolitical Tinderbox

Amid this fight, the engagement of regions and countries will ultimately tell whether the mission of democracies to create an open and free world shall prevail over a might-makes-right approach. 

This mission aims not just to preserve the international order, but to modernize it. The goal is to ensure that regions and their constituent nations are equipped to work collectively toward addressing global challenges. China's intention to reshape the international order, given its economic, diplomatic, and technological capacity, needs to be checked. This is essential to thwart China's geostrategic grand plan of cementing its influence throughout the Indian Ocean Region.

The political vacuum engulfing Bangladesh raises uncertainties not just about its own democratic and economic future but also about that of South Asia. It could well endanger broader regional instability, stretching from complicating Dhaka's traditional relationship with India, to creating complex windows of entry for Pakistan and China. The South Asian tinderbox is heating up.

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Author: Dr Monika Chansoria

Learn more about Dr Chansoria and follow her column "All Politics is Global" on JAPAN Forward, and on X (formerly Twitter). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organization with which she is affiliated.