Earthquake Preparedness: Japan's Critical Decade

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The Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese government has unveiled a new basic plan to reduce the impact of a major Nankai Trough earthquake. It aims to reduce 80% of the estimated death toll of 298,000 within the next decade.

The urgency of disaster preparedness is underscored by recent seismic activity in another region of Japan. Beginning in late June, the Tokara Islands in southern Kagoshima Prefecture experienced a swarm of over 1000 earthquakes since June 21. The islands are along the Ryukyu Trench, near the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate subduction zone. Although no major damage has been reported, the persistent tremors have significantly heightened public anxiety.

Adding to this sense of unease is a prediction circulating online, based on a manga titled The Future I Saw, that a catastrophic earthquake would strike Japan on July 5.

The previous plan, introduced in 2014, set the same goal of cutting the death toll by 80 percent over ten years. In practice, however, the reduction reached only about 20 percent. The new strategy must avoid repeating the same failures.

Japan must thoroughly investigate why the previous disaster mitigation targets fell so far short, identify the gaps, and reflect those lessons in the new plan. Meeting these goals is a vital responsibility the government owes to its citizens.

*Evacuees from Tokara Island arrive at Kagoshima Port by ferry on July 4. (©Sankei by Kotaro Hikono)*

Top Priority: Reducing Earthquake and Tsunami Deaths

It is undeniable that the progress of past disaster countermeasures was inadequately monitored and assessed. The new plan addresses this by shifting from irregular progress checks to annual evaluations and by quadrupling the numerical targets for key measures.

Many challenges remain. These include the construction of embankments and tsunami evacuation facilities, as well as the seismic retrofitting of homes. Effective solutions must be devised and implemented steadily to address such pressing issues.

Countermeasures against a Nankai Trough earthquake will be the top priority for the new control-tower Disaster Management Agency, which the government plans to launch in fiscal 2026. The agency's effectiveness as a central command body will be put to the test in this effort. At the same time, stronger support for local governments is essential.

To reduce the number of tsunami-related deaths, swift evacuation at the onset of strong shaking is critical.

The new plan calls for an investigation into factors that prevent residents from recognizing the urgency of early evacuation. This review must be conducted without delay, and its findings incorporated into future countermeasures.

*A tsunami of up to 31 meters is expected to reach Shimoda City in Shizuoka Prefecture in the event of a major earthquake along the Nankai Trough.*

Next Big Quake

Nankai Trough earthquakes are estimated to occur every 100 to 150 years, though the intervals can vary. The last major quake, which struck near the end of World War II, came about 90 years after the Ansei era earthquake in the late Edo period. Now, with 80 years having passed since the war, it would not be surprising if the next temblor occurred within the next decade.

As outlined in the new plan, the coming ten years could be our final opportunity to significantly decrease disaster risk. The government must act swiftly to accelerate its efforts with this sense of urgency.

At the Central Disaster Management Council meeting, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said, "It is important for various entities, including the national government, local governments, companies, and NPOs, to join forces and promote countermeasures." Yet, above all, what truly matters is the Prime Minister's determination and action.

The public must also understand the importance of preparedness. They should take proactive steps within their control, such as securing furniture to prevent injuries during an earthquake.

In the upcoming Upper House election, each party has pledged to strengthen disaster preparedness efforts, including for earthquakes. We look forward to meaningful policy debates focused on the nation's disaster management strategy.