EDITORIAL | Beware, Instability in New Caledonia Can Benefit China

New Caledonia, located in the South Pacific near Australia, is known in Japan as the "island closest to heaven" through movies and other media. However, recently riots have broken out in the French-governed territory. Protesters say they oppose constitutional reforms regarding who is eligible to vote in elections.

If the unrest is prolonged, it could invite interference from China, which is seeking to expand its influence in the region. The French government must work to calm the situation. 

Indigenous people known as Kanaks make up roughly 40% of the population. To prevent dilution of their voice at the polls, the right to vote in local elections has been largely limited to inhabitants residing in New Caledonia before 1998.

However, the French National Assembly recently passed a constitutional amendment broadening the right to vote in local elections. Under the amendment, residents who have lived in New Caledonia for more than 10 years could vote. 

Unhappy Rioters

Riots broke out as Kanak activists advocating independence demanded the amendment be repealed. 

Afterward, buildings and motor vehicles were set on fire one after the next. There were multiple deaths. In addition, Japanese residents were evacuated by air.

The French government contends that the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan incited the unrest through social media and other means. It is seen as retaliation because the French government was providing military support to Armenia, a bitter enemy of Azerbaijan. Subsequently, French President Emmanuel Macron visited New Caledonia and promised not to force changes to the constitution. The state of emergency also was lifted. 

Amidst these developments, the French government is wary of China trying to use the unrest to its advantage. New Caledonia has held three referendums on independence from France since 2018, but all three failed. The advocates of independence have continued their agitation nonetheless. According to a research institute under the French Ministry of Defense, the "independence faction is under the influence of China." 

Important Natural Resources

New Caledonia is the world's third-largest producer of the vital mineral nickel. The importance of nickel as a raw material used in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EV) and other purposes is expected to grow. Japan imports much of the nickel ore it consumes from New Caledonia. Independence advocates additionally calculate that the extensive nickel resources make independence feasible. 

If New Caledonia becomes independent and adopts a pro-China stance, the international supply chain and military balance would be destroyed. Furthermore, the island group is located east of Australia. That raises concerns that the islands could also provide the Chinese military with a base for collecting intelligence and cutting transportation links between Australia and the United States. 

Finally, if France were to lose its identity as a Pacific power, its interest in the Indo-Pacific region might flag. That could weaken it as a deterrent to Chinese expansionism. Japan, America, and Australia should work with France and cooperate in bringing stability back to New Caledonia. 

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(Read the editorial in Japanese.)

Author: Editorial Board, The Sankei Shimbun