EDITORIAL | Hokkaido Revival Should Not Be Hinged on Delayed Shinkansen

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The Hokkaido Shinkansen between Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto and Sapporo will be delayed until the end of Fiscal Year 2038. This is according to a report by a panel of experts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) on March 14. However, it also suggests that the bullet train construction could be further delayed for several more years.

Construction of the Shinkansen extension to Sapporo had been ongoing with the aim of opening in late FY2030. However, there have been several complications, and progress has been slow. One setback involved the discovery of massive boulders at the construction site where a tunnel will cut through Mount Yotei. Chronic labor shortages have also contributed to the lengthy project delays, which now amount to more than eight years.

This has struck a direct blow to JR Hokkaido's expectations for a significant increase in passenger revenue from the Shinkansen's extension. Moreover, redevelopment along the Shinkansen line will likely be stymied, negatively impacting the Hokkaido economy as a whole.

*Train at Nemuro station, Hokkaido (©Agnes Tandler)*

Costs and Excuses

Difficulties were expected even before construction began. Among the challenges, the Hokkaido Shinkansen extension passes through a series of steep mountains, including Mount Yotei. Furthermore, tunnels account for 80% of the route. Individuals involved in the project explain, "It was difficult to grasp the geological details in advance." However, this excuse rings a bit hollow.

A significant increase in project costs is therefore unavoidable. Three years ago, the MLIT estimated that costs would balloon to ¥2.315 trillion JPY ($15.5 billion USD) from the initial plan estimate of ¥1.67 trillion ($11.2 billion). Some observers believe the total cost could ultimately exceed ¥3 trillion ($20 billion).

In any event, JR Hokkaido, as well as the national government, Hokkaido Prefecture, and local governments along the line must face the reality that the Shinkansen will not be extended to Sapporo for the next decade or so. Therefore, this should be taken as an opportunity to shift focus to local Hokkaido lines.

Strengthening Local Rail Lines and Economies

One natural option is to shift focus to maintaining and strengthening the parallel Hakodate Line between Oshamambe and Otaru. The line runs through the international tourist destination Niseko. In winter, it is as crowded as Tokyo's Yamanote Line, mainly with foreign tourists.

Bus service was expected to replace this existing link. However, there is a nationwide shortage of bus drivers, so it is not feasible to switch to buses. Instead, establishing a new tourist train could increase revenue.

There is also a redevelopment project in front of Sapporo Station, which must be boldly reconsidered. Currently, the plan is centered on the construction of high-rise buildings in anticipation of the Shinkansen extension. It would be a shame for the city of Sapporo to leave this prime location in front of the station virtually vacant until the Shinkansen extension is completed.

*View of the two tunnels on the West side of the Koboro station in Hokkaido. (©Agnes Tandler)*

With a rapidly declining population and the pressure of tourism, Hokkaido needs revitalization. Reorganizing public transportation such as trains and buses so that they are easier for residents and tourists to use would also bring significant economic benefits.

We urge the national government, local governments, and Japan Rail to take this opportunity to revive Hokkaido's infrastructure and economy. Using all their collective wisdom, they can bring new life to Japan's northernmost main island.