Refugee application center located on the third floor of the Tokyo Regional Immigration Services Bureau in Minato Ward, Tokyo. (© KYODO)
Debates over accepting foreigners in Japan often fall into two extremes: outright rejection or uncritical welcome. The mass media tends to lean toward the latter, and that is cause for concern.
For example, one common claim is that "foreign crime is not increasing." While the media reports this, many people feel a gap between that narrative and their own experiences. In fact, their sense is more accurate.
Looking at the data correctly, the number of foreign arrests for major crimes such as murder and robbery has indeed increased over the past decade. Crime rates per capita are significantly higher among foreigners compared to the Japanese.
Reporting that distorts data is harmful, including when it's done out of a desire to convey a more positive view of foreigners. It prevents appropriate policy responses. For instance, crime rates vary by residence status and nationality. Crime rates are particularly high among migrants who arrive in Japan already carrying large personal debts to recruiters or brokers. If the authorities strictly check debt levels at the time of entry, this could be addressed. However, such issues are being glossed over.
Hidden Fiscal Burdens
Similarly, media claims that "foreigners are fiscally beneficial because most are young, paying premiums while using little medical care" overlook two major points.
Foreigners who are young now will inevitably grow older. While they may seem fiscally beneficial in the short term, marriage, children, and later life bring rising costs in education, pensions, healthcare, and nursing care. Only foreigners earning several times the average Japanese income remain a net positive across their lifetimes.
Those entering on Specified Skill Worker visas who later gain permanent residency create a fiscal deficit estimated in the hundreds of thousands of dollars per person.
Second, some people arrive in Japan in middle age or later and still seek permanent residency. Foreign-only nursing homes already exist in Japan, and advertisements promoting the use of Japan's long-term care insurance are spreading. In such cases, since no premium contributions were made during their youth, the fiscal burden becomes enormous.
If data is organized properly, the solution is clear: foreigners with below-average incomes should not be granted permanent residency. Also, those arriving in middle or old age should be required to pay healthcare and nursing costs upfront.
The 10% Myth
Another misleading claim is that "foreigners make up 10–20% of the population in Western countries, while Japan's figure is only 3%." In reality, comparisons often mix up the proportion of foreigners with the proportion of foreign-born residents. Looking only at foreigners, Japan's population is 3% foreigners, while the United States is 7%. Excluding intra-European Union mobility, Germany's is 9% and France's is 7%, narrowing the gap considerably.
This illustrates how shaky the nature of the forecast is that Japan's foreign population could exceed 10% by 2040. What is urgently needed is a shift to strategic immigration policies with upper limits. Yet, even in the Liberal Democratic Party leadership race, such solutions are scarcely debated.
In Western countries, both the media and migration researchers have long emphasized the positive sides of immigration while neglecting the negatives. Together with industry demands, this leads to excessive immigration.
To avoid repeating the same mistakes, Japanese media must rigorously communicate accurate data. Readers, too, must cultivate a habit of scrutinizing reports.
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Author: Eiji Hara
