Participants in the forum are joined by Wen Lii, of the Office of the President of Taiwan (©Yoko Ishii)
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The issue of today is the problem caused by two authoritarian states, Russia and China. Russia is currently invading Ukraine, and China is not attempting to hide its ambition to annex Taiwan. The two are intertwined. A key question is how countries that value freedom, democracy, and the free world order can work to counter them.
This was the topic of a groundbreaking international conference held in Taiwan on September 18-19. Called the "Free Nations of Post Russia Forum," this marked the twelfth iteration in the series of international conferences. Its theme was "Design of post-Russian space and its impact on the macro-regions of East, Southeast & Central Asia." Representatives of the captive nations under Russia's rule, researchers and supporters from Europe, the United States, and Japan, and Taiwanese politicians and researchers gathered.
The first forum in the series was held in Warsaw, Poland, in May 2022. In its seventh iteration, the conference was held in Tokyo in August 2023, as reported in The Sankei Shimbun. This is the second time the forum has been held in Asia.
The forum was named an "undesirable organization" by the Russian government in March 2023.
A prominent feature of the conferences is the gathering of representatives of Russia's captive nations. Their representatives begin by holding up a map showing how Russia is divided into 41 parts. In other words, it is a forum where things that are inconvenient for the Russian government are discussed.
Dangers of China in Three Episodes
The first day of the September 2024 forum was punctuated by a public event held at the prestigious National Chengchi University in Taipei. An exclusive speech by Wu Chih-chung, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan, highlighted its opening. Anna Fotyga, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, introduced him.
Wu strongly expressed Taiwan's 100% support for Ukraine and introduced its various ongoing assistance programs.
To be honest, Taiwan's support for Ukraine had never made much of an impression on me. Therefore, I was a bit surprised that Wu made such a strong statement. He then introduced three episodes in which he addressed the dangers of China. In the order presented, they are as follows.
Wu explained that the first occurred in September 2015. Xi Jinping told then-President Barack Obama that: "China's relevant construction activity in the Nansha Islands does not target or impact any country and there is no intention to militarize." However, what about now?
Second, in May 2015, Xi told Obama's Secretary of State John Kelly: that the vast Pacific Ocean has enough space for two large countries like the United States and China. This became a theme for Xi.
Third, in November 2023, Xi told US President Joe Biden that "Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed, and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other."
China's ambitions are growing bigger and bigger, Wu noted.
Focus on Japan's Role
One of the distinctive points of the September forum was that Japan was often the topic of discussion. Speakers and participants discussed Japan far more in Taipei than in 2023 when the forum was held in Japan.
Discussion Panel 2 provides an example. It was titled "Post Russia Independent States & New Geopolitical Face of the Asia-Pacific Macroregion." Moderator Sergej Sumlenny of the European Resilience Initiative Center posed a question to panelist Hidetoshi Ishii. He noted that Japan was surrounded by three nuclear powers: Russia, China, and North Korea. Then he went on to ask if, for example, Japan wouldn't like to set aside its differences with one of them.
Hidetoshi Ishii is my husband and president of the Indo-Pacific Human Rights Information Center. He is also the author of the recently published book "The Coming Collapse of Russia" (August 2024, in Japanese). Janusz Bugajski, author of "Failed State: A Guide to Russia's Rupture" (2022, in English) was sitting next to him. The scene where Bugajski held up Ishii's book was symbolic of the event. It showed like-minded sharing and widespread common acknowledgment of the movement.
What Would Abe Do
Hidetoshi Ishii's response to Sergej was as follows:
"The policies of the [Shinzo] Abe and [Fumio] Kishida administrations were very different. Prime Minister Abe was a politician who highly valued freedom and democracy. But at the same time, he was a realist. He believed that Japan did not have the strength to fight both China and Russia simultaneously. Therefore, Abe emphasized dialogue with Russia and held 27 meetings with [Vladimir] Putin.
However, on February 24, 2024, everything changed. The Kishida administration harshly criticized Russia's attack on Ukraine as 'aggression' and stood 100% on Ukraine's side. Japan believes that the unity of the free nations is significant."
Why Japan Supports Ukraine
The reason why Japan is enthusiastically supporting Ukraine is very important. I, as a Japanese national, also emphasized this in my speech as follows:
"Why does Japan care so much about Ukraine regardless? Because the victory of the authoritarian state, Russia, would send a wrong signal to Chinese Communist Party-led China. If Russia wins, it will either show a pattern or set a precedent. That is, if it illegally pushes and pushes and pushes around with military force, and invades other countries, it can change the status quo, conquer, and get the territory it wants. If such a case becomes a reality, it would become an incentive for China. We must stand strong to show that no invasion is allowed."
A Taiwan emergency is a Japan emergency. To prevent a Taiwan emergency from occurring, Russia must not be allowed to win in Ukraine. This is Japan's basic strategy now, and I believe it is the right way.
'Freedom, Democracy, and the Rule of Law'
The second day was a closed-door event. However, I can report that Wen Lii, Spokesperson of the Office of the President of Taiwan, gave a detailed presentation on Taiwan's policies. He engaged in a lengthy and meaningful discussion with forum participants.
We also had an excellent discussion with Kuan-Ting Chen, a member of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, in his office. Taiwanese politicians were also very interested in Ukraine and the "Free Nations of Post Russia Forum."
The three groups of nations are all in different situations but they are facing the same problems. They begin with the group of captive nations that are currently ruled by Russia but calling for independence. As well, they include Ukraine, which is currently being invaded by Russia, and Taiwan, which is facing the danger of invasion by China. In the end, the root of the problem is the same and the solutions are the same. Countries that value freedom, democracy, and the rule of law must unite.
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Author: Yoko Ishii
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