If PM Ishiba Won't Take Responsibility, He Can't Turn the Tide

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is the president of the Liberal Democratic Party and Hiroshi Moriyama is the secretary-general. Yet, they have both refused to take responsibility for the recent general election fiasco. 

They fell woefully short of their self-declared goal of the governing coalition winning a bare majority of seats. However,  I cannot detect in their conduct any sense of shame or respect for the will of the people.

The proper course of action would be for Ishiba to resign. Then, the new LDP president could negotiate with other parties in the run-up to the prime minister nomination and election. That will take place in the extraordinary Diet session on November 11. 

However, Prime Minister Ishiba is determined to hunker down and cling to power. He no doubt is looking to form a minority government. 

What the Opinion Polls Say

According to a Kyodo News opinion poll conducted on October 28 and 29, the Ishiba Cabinet had a 32.1% approval rating. Meanwhile, it had a 52.2% disapproval rating. These are already at crisis levels. 

The same poll also shows that 28.6% of respondents want Prime Minister Ishiba to resign. Nevertheless, 65.7% say that is not necessary. Those numbers no doubt encouraged Ishiba to hang on. 

At first glance, those two pairs of numbers might seem contradictory. However, the LDP should not rest easily. Those voters who said that resignation is unnecessary probably include opposition party supporters who believe that keeping Ishiba in power would be a good way to weaken the LDP-Komeito coalition.

The Task of Forming a Government

Maintaining power may be Ishiba's task for the time being. However, the bigger the task of the LDP and Komeito coalition is to regain a majority as soon as possible and restore stability to the government. 

To achieve this, the LDP would need to either forge an expanded coalition with other parties or dissolve the Lower House and win a new general election. Prime Minister Ishiba is probably the LDP member least suited for that job. 

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As it stands, the LDP cannot change the current political trend dominated by the fallout from its "excuse election." A major offensive by the opposition parties in the Diet awaits, along with unrest and infighting within the LDP itself.

Ishiba has demonstrated sudden changes of heart and inconsistency in his words and deeds since taking office. In addition, he has ignored the voters' message in the general election. Above all, he has been ineffective in reaching the hearts and minds of the people. Therefore, it will be difficult for him to grasp any opportunity for a counterattack. 

Also, the Ishiba administration will surely be kept on the defensive with fierce criticism from the opposition parties. They are well aware that a House of Councillors election will take place in the summer of 2025. 

DPP Goals Go Beyond a Coalition

Maybe Ishiba is hoping for a quasi-coalition with the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) based on policy issues. Undoubtedly, he hopes the DPP would remain neutral in the prime ministerial nomination process. However, deepening cooperation with the DPP will certainly prove a difficult task. After all, the DPP too is looking for victory in the summer House of Councillors election. 

If the DPP cooperates in a partial coalition, it would likely be with the hope of bragging about the adoption of its flagship policies. Nevertheless, it realizes that it would be counterproductive if the public views it as a complementary force propping up the Ishiba government. Therefore, it cannot afford to always assume a sympathetic demeanor regarding the administration.

Mind National Security as Democracy Plays Out

It would be too late if Prime Minister Ishiba waited to step down and suffered another major election defeat. 

We should not deny the expected confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties. After all, that is an inherent part of democracy. Nevertheless, diplomacy and national security cannot be neglected.

Back in 1994 when I was a young journalist in my twenties, I covered the political situation surrounding the minority government headed by Prime Minister Tsutomu Hata. It proved to be a short-lived administration lasting just 64 days. At that time politicians and reporters, admittedly including myself, caused an uproar over the political imbroglio. 

However, we ignored the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. If today's Japan were to allow the repeat of such deficient national security attention, it could be disastrous.

RELATED:

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• Ishiba Avoids Going Machiavellian, Signaling Mayhem in the LDP
• EDITORIAL | After the General Election, Create a Stable Government
  
  

(Read the column in Japanese.)

Author: Satoshi Sakakibara, Chief Editorial Writer, The Sankei Shimbun 

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