INTERVIEW | Nuclear Deterrence Insights From the Hibakusha Association

The Hibakusha Association for Peace and Security amplifies the voices of atomic bomb survivors and their descendants. They advocate for a world free of nuclear weapons while acknowledging the harsh realities of today's regional and global security environment. Notably, they champion nuclear deterrence.

Composed of individuals deeply affected by the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, the association honors the memories of those lost. It also recognizes the ongoing suffering experienced by survivors. Bearing this suffering in mind, it explores options to prevent a recurrence of the pain inflicted by nuclear war.

Recently, JAPAN Forward interviewed the association's Deputy Secretary-General, Katsumi Sakai. "This organization consists of second and third-generation survivors of Hiroshima," he said. "We see it as our mission to articulate and promote a security framework that recognizes nuclear deterrence as the key factor in preventing the use of nuclear weapons." Sakai emphasized, "Our goal is to ensure that the mistakes of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are never repeated."

He shared insights on the organization's mission and the pressing challenges facing Japan today. In addition, he highlighted the need for a balanced approach to peace and security in the current global landscape.

Excerpts follow.

Deterrence, Peace, and the Constitution

In what ways does the Hibakusha Association respect Hiroshima's history while supporting nuclear deterrence?

Instead, based on the increasingly severe international context, we advocate for a realistic approach to Japan's security policy. Our organization is comprised of second and third-generation survivors of Hiroshima. 

We consider it our mission to articulate and promote a security framework that acknowledges nuclear deterrence as the key factor in preventing the use of nuclear weapons. Our goal is to prevent the mistakes of Hiroshima and Nagasaki from happening again.

What do you think should be the role of nuclear deterrence in shaping Japan's security policies?

The declaration from the G7 Hiroshima Summit clearly states, "Our security policies are based on the understanding that nuclear weapons, for as long as they exist, should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war and coercion." 

Lessons from current global conflicts show that we can only achieve and maintain peace through painstaking diplomatic negotiations between nations. This process must also include comprehensive national power, including military strength.

Japan may need to move beyond the limitations of "exclusively self-defense" and "one-country pacifism." Establishing a national military capable of participating in a collective security framework could be a necessary step. This would better align Japan's defense policy with its international commitments.

How do the constitutional amendments proposed in your manifesto fit within Japan's current legal framework?

It has been 70 years since the establishment of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in 1954. Despite this, they are still not considered a "military force." They are unable to adequately respond to infringements on Japan's sovereignty, such as territorial violations or the abduction of citizens. 

This is because Article 9 of the Constitution imposes significant restrictions. These restrictions include the renunciation of military forces and the denial of the right to engage in warfare.

We recognize the urgent need to establish a military that can effectively address the severe international environment. Such a military is essential to protect Japan's peace, security, and the lives and property of its citizens from foreign aggression. 

Furthermore, changes may be required to achieve the aspirations stated in the preamble of the Constitution. These aspirations reflect Japan's desire to contribute to peace and maintain an honorable position in the international community.

How do you address criticism that maintaining or expanding nuclear capabilities fuels instability?

The atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki showed that nuclear bombs are the ultimate weapons of mass destruction. Their catastrophic effects harm both human health through radiation and threaten the survival of humanity. 

At the same time, the Cold War intensified the arms race. With China's successful development of nuclear arms in 1964, the world entered an era of nuclear proliferation that continues today. Currently, there are over 13,000 nuclear weapons globally, according to a United Nations report. Even countries that are not part of the Non-Proliferation Treaty possess nuclear arms, contributing to a dangerously unstable international environment.

Nuclear weapons, with their unparalleled destructive power surpassing conventional weapons, are not only used as offensive tools. They also serve as crucial instruments in reshaping the global order through force. Russia and China's recent diplomatic negotiations offer clear proof of this. Using nuclear capabilities to gain leverage in diplomatic discussions is arguably the real factor contributing to global instability.

What are your thoughts on Japan's reliance on the US nuclear umbrella?

Japan, the only country to declare the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," has relied on the US nuclear umbrella for protection. This extended deterrence, under the strongest nuclear power within the NPT framework, addresses nuclear threats from neighboring countries like China.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats have violated his security assurances. These assurances state that the five major nuclear powers (the US, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China) will not use, or threaten to use, nuclear weapons against non-nuclear NPT signatories. 

By threatening to use nuclear weapons, Russia has also shaken the confidence of non-nuclear NPT countries. As a result, Finland and Sweden have opted to abandon their neutrality in favor of the North Atlantic Trade Organization's (NATO) nuclear umbrella.

Restricted Options

As long as nuclear weapons exist, Japan cannot avoid preparing national defense measures against nuclear attacks. While Japan's current reliance on the US nuclear umbrella seems unquestionable, can we truly consider it secure? 

There is no guarantee written in the security treaty that the US will always provide protection in the event of a nuclear crisis.

Another major issue exists as well. Yasushi Tomiyama of the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals noted that the Japanese government's commitment to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles restricts its options. This adherence limits the effectiveness of US-extended nuclear deterrence. As a result, Japan's security may be compromised in the face of nuclear threats. Tomiyama explains NATO's nuclear sharing mechanism, which demonstrates the strength of alliance relationships. He evaluates it as contributing to strengthened deterrence.

I believe that it is now imperative to promptly advance discussions on Japan-US defense strategies. This should include the "nuclear sharing" former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said should be discussed.

How does the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons address today's international security landscape?

In July 2017, the UN adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (hereafter referred to as "the Treaty"). Ever since then, we have expressed opposition to Hiroshima City's request to join the treaty. We have also raised issues with the mayor of Hiroshima on various occasions. The reason is that there are significant issues that threaten Japan's national security.

So what are the issues?

The biggest issue is that this treaty includes provisions that would immediately nullify the Japan-US alliance, the foundation of Japan's national security.

Our country must confront the new threat posed by the expansion of nuclear arms from foreign nations. Despite being a member of the UN Security Council, Russia launched a war of aggression, deceiving the international community with nuclear threats. 

Even after the Second Meeting of States Parties (November 27 to December 1, 2023), the Treaty still lacks measures for verifying nuclear weapons disposal. Moreover, two-thirds of the member states declined to condemn Russia's aggression through UN resolutions. Moreover, not a single nuclear-armed country has joined the treaty.

How do threats from other neighboring countries shape Japan's security challenges?

China is rapidly expanding its military power, including nuclear capabilities. Beijing harbors ambitions to dominate the South China Sea, invade Taiwan, and seize Japan's southwestern islands. 

North Korea now possesses missiles with a range of 15,000 kilometers and submarine-launched missiles. Japan must recognize that these three nuclear powers threaten its security.

What measures should Japan take to ensure its safety while supporting international nuclear disarmament?

Former Air Self-Defense Force General Sadamasa Oue explained that the validity of a nuclear deterrence strategy relies on the fact that nuclear weapons have never been used. He emphasized that this absence of use is the ultimate proof of its effectiveness. 

In other words, "deterrence" is the result of mutual psychological interaction with a difficult-to-evaluate adversary. As long as the theory does not collapse (i.e., nuclear weapons are not used), it remains valid. But this system may be nearing collapse.

We must prioritize nuclear non-proliferation and deterrence aimed at preventing conflicts (wars) involving conventional weapons.

What motivates your support for constitutional revision?

Now is the time to revise the Constitution to create a normal military that can exercise collective self-defense, moving beyond an exclusively defense-oriented stance. 

 We at the Hibakusha Association reject notions like "nuclear abolition will lead to world peace" and "Article 9 pacifism is the foundation of peace."

Additionally, we must reconsider the Three Non-Nuclear Principles and strengthen deterrence to prevent the use of nuclear weapons.

We strongly urge swift action on constructing nuclear shelters, developing dual-use public infrastructure, and securing emergency medical systems and food supplies. 

RELATED:

• EDITORIAL | What Noda, the New Opposition Top Calls His Conservative Policies Could Imperil Japan
• Deterring North Korea, Why It's Expensive but Essential
• EDITORIAL | To Reject War Deterrence is to Imperil Japanese Lives, Security
  
  

Author: Daniel Manning