Grant Newsham 
PM Shigeru Ishiba responds to questions from reporters ahead of his visit to the United States. January 6, 2025 (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna)
Donald Trump…meet Shigeru Ishiba.
The best part of high school chemistry class many years ago was mixing two combustible chemicals and getting a nice violent reaction.
It was fun to watch.
When Japanese PM Ishiba meets President Trump on February 7th in Washington, alliance managers will try to orchestrate an exchange of platitudes and declarations the US-Japan relationship has never been stronger ー and is destined for even greater heights.
But one still sort of hopes for the high school chemistry class explosion.
Even if not likely, it's not unthinkable.
It Takes Statesmanship
President Trump has a businessman's sense of things along with doubts Japan ー like all US allies ー is doing enough to defend itself.
Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe "tamed" Trump during his first term via a mixture of flattery and well-intentioned, and somewhat successful, efforts to improve Japan's defenses. Abe was also the driving force behind the idea of a "free and open Indo-Pacific." It's a concept intended to rally the US and other free nations against an expansionist People's Republic of China.
But Ishiba is no Abe, who was a once-in-a-generation statesman when it came to Japan's foreign affairs.
Oddly enough, Abe didn't even like the United States all that much. He believed Japan was tricked into World War II and that the victorious Americans imposed an unfair constitution for which Japan and the Japanese were unsuited.
But Abe understood that Japan's deeper interests and security, if not survival, required a solid alliance with the US.
He kept his other thoughts to himself.
Ishiba's Challenge
As for Ishiba…
He hasn't got anywhere near Abe's influence. Ishiba wasn't elected because he was popular. But because much of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) saw supporting Ishiba as a way to stick it to the late Shinzo Abe's LDP party faction.
Ishiba also hasn't bothered to hide his resentments, unlike Abe. He complains about the Japan-US relationship being unequal.
Of course, it is. The United States has agreed to sacrifice its servicemembers' lives to protect Japan ー while Japan has made no corresponding promise to America.
And young Japanese won't even join the Japan Self-Defense Forces in necessary numbers. Japan's military missed recruitment targets by 50% in 2024, and regularly misses them by 20%.
Ishiba also is unhappy with the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Supposedly he thinks it gives Japan third-world treatment while allowing US troops to run wild in Japan without fear of punishment. Neither is true.
Some SOFA modifications may be in order ー but in both directions. US forces often have to leave Japan to train to defend Japan ー despite the SOFA guaranteeing them adequate training areas and freedom to conduct necessary training in Japan. Ishiba ought to be complaining about this ー and to his own people ー more than anything.
'Horse Trading' Not Advised
In other instances after Trump's election in November 2024, Ishiba spoke of doing "horse trading" with President Trump.
This sort of combative approach is ill-advised. Especially for a country with a modest, undersized military that is overwhelmingly dependent on the United States for protection in a very dangerous neighborhood that includes China, Russia, and North Korea.
If Ishiba enters the meeting with President Trump with a chip on his shoulder, or intending to demonstrate "toughness" for a Japan audience, it will not be well received by Trump. Or by many Americans, including friends of Japan.
Getting This Right
We'll know soon enough what happens when Ishiba and Trump meet.
A chemistry class sort of conflagration would be entertaining, but there's too much at stake. Resentments can destroy nation-to-nation relationships just as they do person-to-person ones.
Both sides will be better off with an uneventful meeting where each side expresses appreciation for the other while promising to move the alliance forward.
Afterward, relevant officials and officers – hopefully, the right ones with experience – on both sides can get together and do what's necessary for both US forces and the Japan Self-Defense Force to be able to fight ー both by themselves and together.
Getting this right is all that matters and there's plenty to be done.
Without Japan, the US will be hard-pressed to maintain its position in Asia. Without the US, Japan will have no chance at all.
Abe knew this.
Does Ishiba?
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Author: Grant Newsham
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and former US diplomat. He is the author of the book "When China Attacks: A Warning To America."
