Ishiba Oroshi: Can the LDP Survive Japan's Embattled Prime Minister?

With the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly and House of Councillors elections on the horizon, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba finds himself on the brink.

Once seen as a symbol of clean politics, Ishiba's administration has been deeply shaken by the recent ¥100,000 JPY ($670 USD) gift certificate scandal. Newly elected Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers reportedly received gift vouchers and lavish dinners directly from the prime minister's office. This occurred just hours before a dinner meeting at the prime minister's official residence on March 3.

The crisis has eroded Ishiba's approval ratings, which now sit at a record low of 30.4%. It has also triggered whispers — and in some cases, open calls — for his resignation. The once-solid ground beneath Ishiba's leadership is crumbling, and a new political drama, dubbed the "Ishiba Oroshi" (the Ishiba takedown), is beginning to unfold.

Local Revolt and Party Silence

Yoshiko Sakurai, a prominent journalist and political commentator, has spoken out strongly against the Ishiba administration.

In her March 20 analysis on Genron TV, she emphasized the growing unrest among LDP local assembly members. They are now calling for an urgent party-wide meeting to determine Ishiba's fate.

Sakurai recalled how Ishiba himself had previously demanded such meetings whenever other prime ministers faced electoral setbacks — including during the administrations of Taro Aso and Shinzo Abe. Yet now, when facing scandal and plummeting trust, Ishiba remains defiant.

*Former Prime Ministers Taro Aso (left) and Yoshihide Suga attend a plenary session of the House of Representatives on March 21, 2024. (©Sankei by Ataru Haruna)*

"Why won't the party hold a general meeting of Diet members now, when Ishiba himself once weaponized it against others?" Sakurai asked.

According to Sakurai, "fear and self-interest grip many LDP lawmakers." They hesitate to take a stand, fearing backlash or exclusion from party endorsements.

The Three-King Summit

Sakurai also highlighted a high-level dinner between three of the LDP's most powerful figures: Taro Aso, Toshimitsu Motegi, and Fumio Kishida. Not considered particularly close friends, this unlikely trio met shortly after the scandal emerged.

The meeting, reportedly arranged by Motegi, sent an unmistakable message: talks about Ishiba's successor have begun.

Aso, with his elite pedigree and famously sharp tongue, is said to have confronted Kishida over past disloyalty in a previous leadership contest. The symbolism of this gathering has not gone unnoticed within political circles.

A Party in Disarray

Mitsuru Sakai, Political Affairs editor of The Sankei Shimbun, warned that the LDP may be sowing the seeds of its own collapse. "They might end up strangling themselves," he said in a recent stream with WEB Editorial Chief Shigeyuki Mizuchi. "Ultimately, the LDP as a whole could pay the price. And as commenters are already asking, where's the leadership? What's the plan?"

Mizuchi echoed the sentiment, pointing to the broader geopolitical stakes. "This is all happening while Trump is unpredictable and tariffs are back on the table," he said. "Shouldn't we be united right now? What are we doing?"

A Leader Isolated

Rui Sasaki, a professor at Reitaku University, also delivered a damning assessment of Ishiba's position.

In a March 21 interview with Daily WiLL, he framed the scandal as not just a lapse in judgment but "a potential violation of both the Political Funds Control Act and the National Diet Law."

While Ishiba claims the gift certificates were not related to political activity, Sasaki argues that holding meetings inside lawmakers' offices classifies them as such. That would make Ishiba's actions legally questionable.

Sasaki also notes the worsening relationship between Ishiba and LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama, once a crucial behind-the-scenes ally.

Their rift, stemming from a controversial ¥20 million ($132,786) fund transfer during last year's election, has left Ishiba more isolated than ever. Without Moriyama's support, Ishiba has few trusted allies.

*LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama (©Sankei by Nobuhiro Imanaka)*

The Opposition's Best Ally

Ishiba may hope to hold out until the House of Councillors election. But keeping him in office could mean disaster for the LDP.

The only people who benefit from Ishiba's prolonged tenure are the opposition parties. A wounded leader heading into a national election plays directly into their hands.

Additionally, the lack of a clear successor adds to the paralysis. Even lawmakers who oppose Ishiba fear becoming the face of a losing campaign.

Yet, the dinner summit between Aso, Kishida, and Motegi suggests that major players are preparing to act. If they coalesce around a new leader, change may come fast.

Crunch Time for the LDP

As Sakurai stresses, if no one in the LDP steps up, the party risks disaster. The general meeting of Diet members only needs one-third of lawmakers to demand it. That threshold could be reached.

If a majority supports a no-confidence motion, Ishiba could be forced to resign. But so far, no such move has been made.

Should Ishiba remain, his legacy may be one of stubbornness and self-preservation — not reform or leadership.

The Ishiba Oroshi movement is building momentum. Whether it becomes a full-blown coup depends not on Ishiba but on whether the LDP's lawmakers are ready to stop waiting and start leading.

Author: Daniel Manning