Ishiba Under Fire in LDP but Has Public Backing

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces one of the most precarious moments of his political career after the ruling coalition's crushing defeat in the House of Councillors election. Yet despite mounting calls for him to step down within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), fresh polling shows that public opinion is tilting in his favor, giving him a measure of resilience against intraparty revolt.

A joint survey conducted by The Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network (FNN) on August 23–24 found that 51.9% of respondents said Ishiba should not resign. This was a 7.7-point increase from a month earlier. Only 41.4% said he should step down. The result marks the first time a majority has favored his continuation, even as the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition lost its Upper House majority.

Additionally, the cabinet's approval rating also rose by 4.2 points to 38.8%, while disapproval fell to 57.1%. These modest but significant improvements suggest that Ishiba, embattled as he may be by the last two election results, still retains a stronger foothold with the electorate. Many in his party, however, are reluctant to agree.

Party Pressure vs Public Backing

The LDP's senior ranks have been rife with speculation about advancing the party leadership race to force Ishiba's resignation.

Yet the survey revealed a stark contrast between the party's internal maneuvering and public sentiment. While 43.4% of respondents supported accelerating the presidential election, 48.7% opposed it. Among LDP supporters, opposition to an early contest was even stronger, with 70% rejecting the move.

This divergence highlights a widening rift between the LDP's leadership and its base. Party lawmakers, particularly in both chambers of the Diet, argue that Ishiba bears responsibility for the coalition's unprecedented loss of its majority.

However, the data indicate that voters who still support the LDP are far less inclined to demand his ouster. Those calling most loudly for resignation are often found among defectors who have already shifted their allegiance to newer parties such as Sanseito, the Japan Conservative Party, or the Democratic Party for the People (DPP).

Who Supports Ishiba and Who Does Not

The demographic breakdown of the poll illustrates Ishiba's complex standing. Older voters, especially those over 70, strongly back his continuation. 70.6% said he should not resign, compared with just 23.8% among voters aged 18–29. Younger respondents overwhelmingly favored resignation, with 67.6% saying Ishiba should step down.

This generational divide mirrors broader shifts in Japan's political landscape. Established party supporters and older voters lean sympathetically toward Ishiba, while the younger electorate gravitates toward emerging political movements with populist appeal.

*Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba enters the Prime Minister’s Office, August 25(©Sankei by Naka Haruna).*

Supporters of Sanseito, the Japan Conservative Party, the DPP, and Reiwa Shinsengumi were far more likely to demand resignation. LDP, Komeito, and Constitutional Democratic Party supporters leaned toward keeping Ishiba in office.

These findings underscore a paradox: Ishiba is increasingly unpopular among the youngest, most politically volatile bloc, but continues to draw strength from more stable, high-turnout older voters. This dynamic may explain why he is reluctant to yield to internal pressure. His political foundation remains firm where it matters most in terms of reliable electoral participation.

Policy Stances Shaping Approval

The survey also measured responses to Ishiba's policy initiatives. His decision to boost rice production to secure stable supplies won overwhelming support, with 82% approving.

Similarly, his expression of views to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II drew 61.4% approval against 28.9% opposition. Yet conservatives worry such a statement could reignite historical disputes with neighboring countries.

On energy and taxation, views were more mixed. Nearly half of respondents (48.3%) favored the swift abolition of the temporary gasoline tax surcharge, while 33.2% urged gradual abolition, and 15.4% opposed elimination altogether. These results suggest that Ishiba's pragmatic, measured approach to fiscal and energy issues still aligns with mainstream voter preferences.

Taken together, the findings suggest that the electorate is cautious about Ishiba's political setbacks. Still, they show broad receptiveness to his policy agenda, particularly on bread-and-butter issues like food security and cost-of-living relief.

A Shifting Political Map

Party support levels in the survey reveal how the election reshaped the political map. The LDP held 22.2% support, down but still the largest single bloc. Sanseito followed with 9.9%, ahead of the DPP at 9.3%, the Constitutional Democrats at 5.2%, and Komeito at 4.2%. Nippon Ishin no Kai registered 4.0%, Reiwa 3.9%, the Japanese Communist Party 2.8%, and the Japan Conservative Party 2.4%.

*Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya speaks to the press. July 3, Chuo Ward, Tokyo (©Sankei by Shinpei Okuhara)*

The data shows the continued erosion of LDP dominance, with emerging parties capitalizing on disillusionment, particularly among younger voters. Analysts note that the conservative base that once anchored Shinzo Abe's administration drifted during the later years of Fumio Kishida's government and has now fractured into smaller parties. Ishiba, for his part, dismisses these shifts as temporary populist surges, insisting he will not allow "this country to be ruined."

Resignation Unlikely for Now

Ultimately, Ishiba's fate may hinge less on raw parliamentary arithmetic and more on the balance between intraparty rebellion and public opinion. Historically, Japanese prime ministers have often been forced out not only by legislative defeats but also by collapsing approval ratings. Ishiba's ability to stabilize his numbers in the wake of electoral disaster provides him with a crucial argument for staying in power: he still enjoys legitimacy with the electorate.

As one LDP insider put it, the more Ishiba is told to quit by party elders, the more determined he becomes to prove that "it's the party that is out of touch, not the people." With older voters and mainstream party supporters rallying to his side, Ishiba appears ready to defy his critics — at least for now.

Whether his resistance marks a last gasp of establishment resilience or the foundation of a political recovery will become clearer in the months ahead. For the moment, Ishiba is betting that Japan's voters, not his fellow lawmakers, will have the final say on his premiership.

(Read a related article in Japanese.)

Author: The Sankei Shimbun