The National Diet of Japan.
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The Sankei Shimbun, together with Fuji News Network, conducted a survey to gauge public sentiment ahead of the February 8 Lower House election.
The survey, carried out on January 31 and February 1, includes original analyses.
According to the poll, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is poised to exceed the 233-seat majority threshold on its own. Together with Ishin no Kai, it could form a ruling coalition surpassing the two-thirds majority (310 seats) needed to propose constitutional amendments in the Diet.
Meanwhile, the Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), a Lower House-only party formed by the lead opposition Constitutional Democratic Party and Komeito, faces the possibility of losing half its pre-election representation.
The LDP is leading in over 200 of the 289 single-seat districts, the poll shows. Combined with proportional representation seats, it is poised to significantly increase its pre-election tally of 198, potentially reaching the 300-seat mark.
Ishin no Kai, LDP's new partner, is performing strongly in Osaka constituencies, raising the possibility that the ruling coalition could together secure the two-thirds majority needed to propose constitutional amendments and to pass bills in the Lower House that are rejected by the Upper House.
Public backing of the LDP-Ishin coalition in the latest survey is widely seen as reflecting broad support for the Sanae Takaichi Cabinet.
Where the Opposition is Strong
Looking at the other side, the CRA holds a clear advantage in fewer than 20 districts, according to the poll. It's also struggling in the proportional representation race, with its seat count expected to fall by half from 167 seats.
Some observers attribute this to the party's limited name recognition — formed right before the election — and to uncertainty over its security policies.
Another opposition, the Democratic Party for the People, is performing well in proportional representation. Yet its strongholds are limited, leaving uncertainty over whether it can maintain its pre-election total of 27 seats.
Likewise, the Japanese Communist Party may only gain seats through proportional representation, and it's unclear whether it can reach its pre-election 8 seats.
The Reiwa Shinsengumi, which currently holds 8 seats, and the new Tax Cuts Japan & Patriotic Alliance, with 5 seats, are likely to lose ground.
Sanseito, fielding 190 candidates, second only to the LDP and the CRA, is expected to make significant gains in proportional representation seats compared with its pre-election two-seat tally. However, it faces tough battles in single-seat districts.
The Conservative Party of Japan is focused on holding onto its single seat. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party, which currently holds no seats, faces headwinds.
Team Mirai, participating in the Lower House election for the first time, is performing well in the proportional representation race, with the prospect of winning five or more seats within reach.
Undecided Voters in Focus
According to the survey, approximately 10% of voters remain undecided or uncertain in both single-seat districts and proportional representation, meaning the outcome may still change leading up to the February 8 vote.
The survey employed the Random Digit Dialing method, which generates telephone numbers at random for landlines and mobile phones.
Using computer-automated dialing, responses were collected from 162,746 men and women across all 289 single-seat constituencies. The results were then weighted to reflect voter distribution patterns from past elections.
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Author: The Sankei Shimbun
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