Now Okinawa, like Taiwan, is On the Frontline

In recent weeks, a striking phrase has spread rapidly across Chinese social media platforms such as Xiaohongshu and Weibo: "Ryukyu contingency is China's contingency." Ryukyu is the historical name for the island chain now known as Okinawa Prefecture. At first glance, the slogan appears to be little more than a sarcastic retort to Japan's oft-repeated warning that "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency." But closer examination suggests something far more deliberate, and potentially dangerous.

According to reporting by Sankei Shimbun, searches for the phrase on Xiaohongshu yield more than 40,000 posts. Many of them frame Okinawa not as an integral part of Japan, but as a territory with an "unsettled" status. Some invoke distorted interpretations of history. Others spread outright falsehoods, such as claims that the United Nations is actively debating the "Ryukyu question," or that Okinawans do not consider themselves Japanese.

A Narrative Years in the Making

Makoto Nakashinjo, Editor-in-Chief of the Yaeyama Nippo, argues that the timing and scale of this narrative should not be misunderstood as a spontaneous online trend. Rather, it reflects a long-prepared propaganda line that Beijing is now amplifying aggressively.

"This is not simply a counter to Japan's Taiwan rhetoric," Nakashinjo says. "China has been laying the groundwork for this narrative for years. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Diet remarks merely provided an opportunity to accelerate and internationalize it."

Indeed, similar claims predate the current administration. In October, at the UN General Assembly's Third Committee in New York, a Chinese government representative criticized Japan over alleged discrimination against "the indigenous peoples of Okinawa," effectively branding Okinawans as a non-Japanese ethnic group on the international stage.

President Xi Jinping himself has drawn attention to supposed historical ties between China and Ryukyu, citing "Ryukyu halls" and tombs in Fuzhou, remarks that caused unease in Tokyo.

Beijing's Calculations in a Taiwan Contingency

The strategic logic behind this information campaign is clear. Should China move militarily against Taiwan, Okinawa, home to major United States bases and Japan Self-Defense Force installations, would be central to any response. By muddying Okinawa's sovereign status in advance, Beijing may hope to blunt international condemnation, portraying future actions as something other than outright aggression.

"In a Taiwan scenario, China would likely seek to neutralize Okinawa early," Nakashinjo warns. "By sowing doubt about sovereignty, Beijing wants to escape the label of 'invader.'"

*A post on the Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu claiming that "a Ryukyu contingency is a China contingency" (from the platform).*

Notably, while many of these posts could be described as territorial revisionism, Chinese authorities have shown little interest in curbing them. Direct claims that "Ryukyu belongs to China" are relatively rare, but the cumulative effect is unmistakable.

At the same time, Weibo has been flooded with exaggerated depictions of domestic opposition to Japan's leadership, including inflated portrayals of exercises of free speech as evidence that "many Japanese demand the prime minister's resignation."

Okinawa's Dilemma

How should Japan respond? Nakashinjo believes restraint at the national level is appropriate, for now. "Okinawa's status is not in doubt," he says. "Excessive rebuttals from Tokyo risk lending legitimacy to an argument that does not deserve it." He points to Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara's statement that there is "no need to comment" because Okinawa is unquestionably Japanese territory as a measured response.

However, he draws a sharp distinction when it comes to Okinawa itself. "From the Chinese perspective, Okinawans are being told they are not fully Japanese, that their basic rights are somehow negotiable. This is not something the people of Okinawa should silently accept."

Here, Nakashinjo voices concern about the posture of Okinawa's prefectural leadership and local media. Governor Denny Tamaki has declined to comment on claims that Okinawans are an "indigenous people" distinct from the Japanese nation, and has avoided direct criticism of Beijing's narrative. Such ambiguity, Nakashinjo argues, risks being exploited.

"The reluctance stems from domestic politics," he says. "The prefectural leadership prioritizes the ideal of a 'base-free Okinawa' and fears that highlighting the Chinese threat would undermine that agenda. But this silence benefits China."

Public Sentiment in the Southwestern Islands

The reality on the ground diverges sharply from Beijing's portrayal. In the Yaeyama Islands, which lie closest to Taiwan and include the Senkaku Islands, administered by Japan but recently claimed by China, public concern over Chinese aggression has never been higher. In Ishigaki City, voters have elected mayors supportive of Self-Defense Force deployment in five consecutive elections. After deployment, opposition largely evaporated.

"The idea that Okinawans want independence from Japan is fiction," Nakashinjo states flatly. "It exists only among fringe activists and a handful of academics. It does not reflect public sentiment."

*The Senkaku Islands in Ishigaki City, Okinawa Prefecture.*

Long-Term Security Implications

Looking ahead, he sees little chance that the "Ryukyu contingency" slogan will remain mere rhetoric. China's sustained pressure around the Senkakus over the past decade demonstrates that its ambitions are real and persistent. Even a hypothetical retraction of Japan's Taiwan-related statements would not alter Beijing's trajectory.

Japan's response, Nakashinjo argues, must be twofold: strengthen physical deterrence, especially in the southwestern islands, and prepare for a prolonged information war. Democratic nations, too, must recognize that Okinawa, like Taiwan, is becoming a frontline in the defense of the rules-based order.

"This is no longer just about Taiwan," he concludes. "Okinawa is already part of the same strategic fault line."

Author: Daniel Manning