Pacific Bluefin Tuna: A New Staple for the Masses?

Stakeholders in Pacific Bluefin tuna management agreed to increase catch limits at a meeting in Kushiro, Hokkaido on July 16. Recommendations include catch increases of 50% for larger Pacific bluefin tuna and 10% for smaller fish. Known as the "black diamond" of the sea and a highly coveted delicacy, Pacific bluefin tuna might become more affordable as supply increases. 

The higher catch limits will be referred to the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC), for ratification at its annual meeting in November. A CWPFC working group, known as the Northern Committee, made the recommendations after reviewing fishery data for Pacific Bluefin and other species at their meeting in Hokkaido. CWPFC is an international organization that includes Japan, the United States, and South Korea, as well as 13 other nations and regions. 

The key question now is how these changes will affect prices at restaurants and grocery stores.

Impact on Fish Sellers

"Prices of natural tuna vary with quality, but increasing the overall catch should lower prices. This will definitely make it easier for us to supply," stated the president of one tuna specialty shop. He operates Osaka's Kuromon Market, known as the "kitchen of Osaka," and he is optimistic about the expanded quotas.

Traditionally, Pacific Bluefin tuna has fetched higher wholesale prices than other tuna varieties. For example, in May of 2024, the trading prices at the Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market were ¥3,210 JPY ($20.60 USD) per kilogram for natural, farmed, and imported frozen Bluefin tuna. Meanwhile, yellowfin and bigeye tuna were much less expensive, at ¥1,133 ($7.30 ) and ¥1,145 ($7.45) respectively.

At the same time, the trading price of Bluefin tuna is already trending downward.

The president of the tuna shop in Kuromon Market observed that they have sourced bluefin tuna at relatively lower prices over the past year. This decrease is primarily due to China's import ban linked to the release of ALPS treated water from Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Additionally, an increase in tuna imports from Malta and other regions has contributed to the price reduction. He noted that the price of imported tuna has fallen considerably. In December 2022, frozen bluefin tuna sold for ¥4,212 ($27) per kilogram at the Tokyo Metropolitan Central Wholesale Market. That was approximately ¥1,000 ($6.40) per kilogram more than its current wholesale price. 

Will The Price Drops Reach Consumers?

The expanded catch quotas may further accelerate this downward price trend. However, not all businesses have seen benefits from the price reduction.

For example, Kura Sushi, a prominent conveyor belt sushi chain, holds long-term contracts at fixed prices. Their public relations spokesperson stated, "Our procurement costs do not immediately decrease."

With the rising costs of labor and energy, the spokesperson also mentioned, "Even if the procurement price of bluefin tuna decreases, it's uncertain whether we can reduce our product prices."

Professor Masahiko Ariji is a fisheries economics expert at Kindai University's World Economy Research Institute. He also commented, "We can expect a continued decline in trading prices. However, increasing labor and feed costs could pose long-term challenges for fishers and aquaculture farmers."

He also voiced concerns about the potential shrinkage of the supply system from the fishers' side. "The expansion of quotas does not guarantee that prices will remain stable and reasonable for consumers over the long term," he concluded.

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(Read the report in Japanese.)

Authors: Sarasa Shimizu and Keiko Tamura