Protests in Bangladesh: Implications for India and Japan       

The recent fast-paced developments in Bangladesh have sent the entire region into a tailspin. What started as protests over the quota for the descendants of Bangladeshi freedom fighters in government jobs, swelled and spilled out of control. As it continued, protestors called for the resignation of the Bangladesh prime minister. 

Sheikh Hasina Wazed was forced to resign and had to leave the country.  She is now housed in India while she prepares to look for other countries that would accept her in asylum. In the aftermath, Professor Mohammed Yunus, founder of the micro-credit institution Grameen Bank, has been named interim leader of the country. His role, however, is not yet clear. Meanwhile, the parliament was dissolved on Tuesday to pave the way for the election of a new leader.

Implications for India

For India, this is a big worry since many states (provinces) of India share long borders with Bangladesh. Moreover, at many locations, these borders are very porous. 

India had invested in a big way in Bangladesh in the 15 years since the Awami League government took over in Bangladesh in January 2009. Some major initiatives were taken during this period with regards to connectivity and energy cooperation between Bangladesh and India. The recent developments, however, mean that it might be back to square one for India on the connectivity front with regards to Bangladesh.

India has a long history of close ties with Bangladesh. They go back to the past when India had helped in the liberation movement of that country as early as 1971. After the assassination of the founding father (and the father of Sheikh Hasina) Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, India provided shelter to Sheikh Hasina and her family.

How Japan is Affected

For Japan too, the unrest makes relations difficult. Japan has been involved in the development of the Matarbari deep-sea port in Bangladesh along with many other projects. 

Tokyo has also been involved in projects involving connectivity in Bangladesh. It had been planning to link projects it aids in Bangladesh with the connectivity projects in Northeast India. 

In fact, because of the region's strategic location, Japan is the only country which has been allowed to invest in Northeast India. This part of India shares borders with Bhutan, China, Myanmar and Bangladesh.

There had been a growing interest in Bangladesh on the part of Japan and Japanese companies. In part, that is because Japanese investments in Myanmar had been altering because of the civil war in that country. 

The two countries have grown closer ever since Tokyo recognized the People's Republic of Bangladesh on February 10, 1972. One of the signature initiatives of Japanese foreign policy is the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" vision. While this was conceived by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, it has been continued by successive governments since then. As part of the same, Japan has been working to ensure that a rules-based order is maintained in the Indo-Pacific region.

Bangladesh's International Development Aid

Japan has been one of the closest development partners of Bangladesh since its birth as a nation. However, it has been outsmarted by China in recent times, especially after the launch of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which Bangladesh signed on to.

In June 2018, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) signed loan agreements to the tune of ￥2.65 billion JPY ($19.65 million USD) with the Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh for the development of the Matarbari Port in Bangladesh. Tokyo is also involved in the Dhaka mass rapid transport network as part of its development assistance to the country.

The Matarbari Port is also important for India. That is because it could provide the Northeastern states of India access to a seaport. This region became landlocked at the time of India's independence in 1947. Thereafter, East Pakistan was created in 1947 and the People's Republic of Bangladesh in 1971. 

The Matarbari Port is also close to the Sittwe Port in Myanmar. New Delhi also has significant investments in the natural gas sector in Myanmar, as well as in port projects like the Sittwe Port.

What are the Options for India and Japan?

As of now, there are very few options for India and Japan, given the present state of events in Bangladesh. Tokyo and New Delhi will have to wait and watch the developments in the country. 

The stability offered by Sheikh Hasina’s government allowed countries like India and Japan to invest in Bangladesh. Under Sheikh Hasina, the country had moved fast in terms of its economic development. It attained lower middle income status in 2015. And as of 2022, it was scheduled to exit the United Nations list of least developed countries by 2026.  

India shares a 4096 km border with Bangladesh. If an anti-India regime takes up office in the country, it will be a big problem for Northeast India. In the past, Bangladesh hosted anti-India forces on its soil. 

In addition, there is ongoing trade through the Land Border Crossings between India and Bangladesh. However, this has decreased under the present circumstances. New train routes that were opened between India and Bangladesh in the past also seem to have gone up in smoke now.

Given the unrest, both New Delhi and Tokyo will have to recalibrate their stance when it comes to Bangladesh. As of the date of this publication, everything continues in flux as of now.

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Author: Dr Rupakjyoti Borah
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are personal.