Ukraine War, Three Years On: How Can Democracies Thwart Putin?

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Three years have passed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia's goal is not merely to neutralize Ukraine or annex certain territories. It seeks the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state and total control over its land.

This objective is deeply ingrained in the beliefs of Russia's leadership, led by President Vladimir Putin, as well as many Russian citizens. No matter what obstacles arise, Russia will continue striving to achieve this goal.

An Unwelcome Proposal

A ceasefire proposal brokered by United States President Donald Trump could likely come with three conditions: freezing the conflict along a predetermined front line, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, and continuing US aid to Ukraine. Given Ukraine's heavy reliance on the US, it may be willing to accept these terms if necessary — albeit reluctantly.

However, Russia is unlikely to accept such terms. Its ultimate goal remains full control over Ukraine. A ceasefire under these conditions could make achieving that objective more difficult.

If support for Ukraine continues, Kyiv will likely strengthen its defense capabilities even after a ceasefire, focusing on bolstering its defenses against Russia. If Russia launches another invasion in the future, it will likely face an even tougher fight than it does now.

For this reason, Russia will likely push for conditions that ensure its eventual conquest of Ukraine, such as halting military aid and restricting Ukraine's armed forces. If such demands are made, how will Trump respond?

*US President Donald Trump takes questions from reporters aboard Air Force One on February 9. (©AP via Kyodo News)*

Preparing for US Isolationism

Trump has vowed to "make America great again." However, a truly great nation would never bow to the unreasonable demands of a dictator and war criminal, nor enable further aggression.

A strong leader would not accommodate a dictator who refuses to end the war and continues massacring civilians. Instead, they would use force to suppress the aggressor and bring an end to the conflict. In fact, if he chooses, Trump does have the means to swiftly end the war.

By providing Ukraine with an unprecedented level of military support, the US could empower Kyiv to crush the Russian army and strip Moscow of its ability to continue fighting. This approach would allow the US to end the war on reasonable terms rather than conceding to Russia's demands. The right decisions are crucial to the outcome.

That said, there is no guarantee that Trump will make the right decisions. Therefore, it would be dangerous for Europe and Japan to be swayed by the decisive rhetoric of US leadership. Both must prepare for the worst-case scenario: The US becoming more isolationist and turning its back on international conflicts.

Proactive Japan and Europe Can Lead the Way

Many aspects of Trump's stance may merit skepticism. However, one point he makes is undeniably correct: Europe and Japan have long relied on the US for defense and security. As a result, they have failed to allocate sufficient budgets and resources for their own military capabilities.

Moving forward, both Europe and Japan must significantly increase their defense spending and adopt policies to strengthen their military power. This is essential to deter authoritarian regimes engaged in territorial aggression, including China, Russia, and North Korea.

Additionally, Europe and Japan may need to take on a greater role in providing military aid to Ukraine, which is critical for countering these threats.

If Europe and Japan commit to decisive action, they can lead Ukraine to victory and thwart Russia's ambitions. This would also serve as a deterrent against China's expansionist goals. Moreover, a determined and proactive Europe and Japan may encourage the US to adopt a more cooperative stance.

Author: Andrii Gurenko

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