Warning for the LDP: Vote Share Exactly Matches 2009

A statistically significant dynamic dominated Japan's general election for the Lower House of the Diet on October 27, 2024. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost 65 seats and the majority it had enjoyed. It must form a bigger coalition or it will lose the right to govern. Meanwhile, some opposition parties enjoyed significant gains, but not enough to achieve a majority without forming a coalition.

Looking at the public voting pattern and proportional representation, there is a strong sense of deja vu compared to the election of 2009. Examination of the two elections puts the comparison into perspective.

Trends in Proportional Representation

To make the comparison, the share of each party's votes won through proportional representation in the October 27 election was compared with its share in the 2009 election. 2009 is particularly significant because that election led to a rare change in the party controlling the government.

In 2024, the LDP received 26.73% of the vote — exactly the same share as 15 years earlier in 2009. The combined vote share of the ruling coalition made up of the LDP and Komeito, was also nearly identical.

There was a similar trend among opposition parties. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), the main successor to the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which prevailed in the 2009 election, gained 50 seats. Setting aside that the DPJ split due to broad policy differences, its successors have all been in the opposition. Even with the difference in voter turnout, the combined opposition's share of the vote closely resembles that of 15 years ago.

Similarity in Election Data

According to data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the LDP's vote share was identical in 2009 and 2024. It was exactly 26.73% both years. The combined vote share for the LDP and Komeito was also nearly the same: 38.18% in 2009 and 37.66% in 2024.

Meanwhile, the DPJ's vote share in 2009 was 42.41%. At the time, it was in a coalition with the smaller opposition Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and Japan Socialist Party (JSP). Those smaller parties fared less well in 2024. However, combined with larger parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), Democratic Party for the People (DPP), and Nippon Ishin no Kai (Ishin), the opposition achieved a 41.88% share in the 2024 election. That was again nearly the same as the opposition parties' share 15 years ago.

Fewer Citizens Voted

In 2024, the LDP lost about 5.33 million votes in proportional representation compared to the previous election in 2021. That can be attributed partly to eligible voter turnout, which was 69.27% in 2009. Voter turnout in 2024 was considerably lower, at 53.84%. Nevertheless, the proportion of voters supporting the LDP matched in the two years.

The LDP's proportional representation vote share over the years has varied. It won only a 26.73% share of the vote in 2009. It then rose to 27.62% (2012), 33.11% (2015), 33.28% (2018), and 34.66% (2021). In 2024, though, it dropped back to its 2009 low of 26.73%.

(Read the report in Japanese.)

Author: The Sankei Shimbun