Was China Involved in the Latest Baltic Sea Cable-Cutting Incident?

Russia has recently become less discreet and more aggressive in its "gray zone" attacks on NATO countries. Cutting subsea data cables linking European nations is one option in Moscow's broader toolkit of hybrid aggression. It is especially effective in the Baltic Sea, which is a strategically important waterway that sees a tremendous amount of ship traffic.

Moscow did not disguise its ire when Finland and Sweden decided to join NATO. The 386,000-square-kilometer Baltic Sea became, in effect, a "NATO lake." Furthermore, the Baltic countries, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, have been among the staunchest supporters of Ukraine.

The Rise of Sub-Conventional Warfare

As former United States Ambassador to NATO Douglas E Lute recently noted: "When Russia views itself at a disadvantage in the conventional realm, it will revert to sub-conventional means because they're available, they're difficult to attribute, and Russia's actually quite good at these. It's a natural option."

Hundreds of disruptions to cables occur each year. Some are due to human activity such as fishing and some result from natural causes such as earthquakes. That can make malicious severing of the cables hard to prove.

However, the Russians are well aware that a temporary loss of connectivity through cable sabotage could not just unnerve democratic societies. It could also wreak havoc with European and global financial markets.

No wonder European leaders view the increasingly frequent suspicious Russian activity near their critical underwater infrastructure with alarm. Subsea data cables are vital for European internet connectivity and societal functioning.

The question is whether China has been abetting this Russian sabotage.

Chinese Cargo Ship 'Yi Peng 3'

The latest incident drawing attention to a possible link occurred in mid-November. The Chinese cargo ship Yi Peng 3 allegedly cut two subsea communications cables connecting four NATO countries (Germany, Finland, Lithuania, and Sweden) across the Baltic Sea.

What was especially surprising is that the cable-cutting occurred just over a year after the Hong Kong-flagged China-registered ship NewNew Polar Bear damaged two data cables and a gas pipeline in October 2023.

The 255-meter-long Yi Peng 3 left the Russian port of Ust-Luga, west of St Petersburg, on November 15. Transiting the Baltic Sea, it engaged in somewhat odd behavior, such as losing speed and communication for hours. But this was not necessarily sinister.

*The Estonian Navy investigates a communication cable following damage to a seabed pipeline in the Baltic Sea on October 10, 2023, Gulf of Finland. (Courtesy of the Estonian Navy, Reuters via Kyodo)*

After it allegedly cut the cables in two widely separated areas, apparently by dragging its anchor or some other long object, the Yi Peng 3 was surrounded by naval vessels from the Scandinavian nations.

International Reaction

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius quickly called a spade a spade, saying, "No one believes that these cables were accidentally damaged."

In fact, Western intelligence officials from multiple countries have said they are confident the Chinese ship caused the cuts to both cables. However, they have expressed different views on whether these were accidents or could have been deliberate. Interestingly, European intelligence officials are reportedly convinced that the cable-cutting was done intentionally, while the Americans remain unsure.

The Chinese naturally maintain that they would never do such a thing. In a regular press briefing, the foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said, "I would like to reiterate China's consistent support working with all countries to maintain the security of international submarine cables and other infrastructure in accordance with international law."

Possible Chinese Motives

It should be noted that the captain of the Yi Peng 3 is Russian. It might seem logical to assume that Russian security agencies orchestrated the sabotage if it was sabotage.

With the dire state of the Chinese economy and the looming threat of new US tariffs being slapped on Chinese exports once the Trump administration takes office, it seems like an odd time for Beijing to be alienating Europeans as well. What could it hope to gain from engaging in such cable cutting besides pleasing Vladimir Putin?

At the same time, the Yi Peng 3, owned by China-based Ningbo Yipeng Shipping, had only operated in Chinese waters before March 2024. That was when it began transiting Russian ports and carrying Russian cargo.

Why was this cargo ship now sailing through the Baltic?

In an article appearing on December 5 in the Asia Sentinel, Andy Wong Ming Jun wrote, "Suspected Chinese embroilment in a mid-November Baltic undersea cable-cutting incident has set off increasingly urgent discussions behind the closed doors of multiple defense ministries in the Asia-Pacific region."

Apparently, there is increasing concern that China might deliberately damage or destroy undersea fiber-optic cables in the South China Sea or Western Pacific in a runup to an invasion of Taiwan. As with the Baltic Sea, the waters of the Taiwan Strait are fairly shallow, with an average depth of 150 meters (490 feet).

Shifting European Perspectives

According to a commentary posted on December 3 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the US has expressed concern about the use of subsea data cables built and operated by China's Huawei Marine Networks (HMN) Tech. Coauthors Sophia Besch and Erik Brown explained that this was due to cybersecurity and espionage risks. However, in the past Europeans have not always shared this risk assessment.

The authors added, however, that "China's increasingly blatant support for Russia's war [in Ukraine] and the involvement of Chinese-flagged vessels in the two Baltic Sea cable-cutting incidents, has led Europe to begin to consider China as a threat to European security, including its subsea cables."

Author: John Carroll