The White House in Washington, DC. (©Kyodo)
On August 2, the National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) of the United States released a short, but highly significant report. Entitled "National Counterintelligence Strategy 2024," it represents a new approach to countering the growing threat from foreign intelligence entities.
The NCSC is part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). In a statement timed to the release of the report, NCSC Director Michael Casey said that the strategy is designed to drive action, integration, and resources across the counterintelligence community. The aim is to safeguard US strategic advantages and outmaneuver foreign intelligence agencies and increasingly complex threats.
Tackling 'Gray Zone' Threats
The 24-page report sounds the alarm that spies from Russia, China, North Korea, and other foreign state and non-state groups are seeking to "cause grave harm to the United States, its people, and institutions."
It also makes clear that "the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Russia represent the most significant intelligence threats." Furthermore, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are increasingly coordinating their efforts to weaken the West.
The report explains: "Our leading adversaries view themselves as already engaged in an intense, multifaceted competition with the United States. As such, their intelligence services frequently conduct more aggressive operations that fall in the 'gray zone,' a space between war and peace that encompasses intelligence activities that push the boundaries of accepted norms, such as covert influence, political subversion, and operations in cyberspace."
Political Interference
One way they do this is by interfering in elections. Foreign Policy magazine recently reported that both Russia and Iran have stepped up their disinformation efforts to impact the 2024 US presidential contest. In Russia's case, it advances its two-fold goal of assisting its preferred candidate and disrupting US society to the maximum degree possible.
And China has a long history of meddling in elections in democracies. In February, the ODNI issued a public threat assessment declaring that "Beijing is expanding its global covert influence posture to better support the [Chinese Communist Party's] goals.
What makes the challenge even more difficult is the growth of easily available sophisticated technologies. The report warns, "Adversaries are using cutting-edge technology — such as advanced cyber tools, biometric devices, unmanned systems, high-resolution imagery, enhanced technical surveillance equipment, commercial spyware, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) — to further their espionage, counterespionage, and influence missions."
Proactive Preventative Measures
The 2024 counterintelligence strategy represents a decided shift in emphasis. In the past, US counterintelligence efforts were primarily defensive in nature. However, for the first time, the strategy calls for a proactive "strategic counterintelligence program" to disrupt or compromise foreign espionage and disinformation efforts before they can be implemented.
The strategy has three key pillars.
First, outmaneuver and constrain foreign intelligence entities. This is done by detecting, understanding, and anticipating foreign intelligence threats and combatting foreign intelligence cyber activities.
Second, preserve US strategic advantages by protecting individuals against foreign intelligence targeting and collection. This will safeguard critical technology and US economic security, and reduce risks to key US supply chains.
Third, invest in the future to build counterintelligence capabilities, resilience, and partnerships.
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Author: John Carroll
John Carroll is a Kyoto-based freelance writer and JAPAN Forward contributor. He is currently writing a book on the religious traditions and superstitions of Japan's ancient capital.
