India's PM Visits Russia: What Lies At Stake? 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently visited Russia for the two countries' annual bilateral summit. This marked a major step forward for Russia-India ties. It came at a time when questions had been raised on whether Moscow and New Delhi could survive the "drift" in their ties. Significantly, this was the first bilateral visit undertaken by PM Modi since he was sworn in as prime minister for a third time.

Earlier, during his first and second terms, Prime Minister Modi's first foreign visits were to neighboring countries. However, although he attended the June meeting of the G7 leaders in Italy at the invitation of the Italian Presidency,  this time was different.

It is worth noting that annual bilateral summits between India and Russia have not been held since December 2021. That is when Russian President Vladimir Putin last visited India.

So, what are the major areas where India and Russia can work together?

Why Russia?

First, Russia is still India's biggest defense supplier and things are likely to stay that way for some time. Nevertheless, India has been looking at other countries for defense supplies too.

During the India-Pakistan War of 1971 that led to the creation of Bangladesh, India and the then-Soviet Union signed a Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation. This war ultimately led to an Indian victory and the creation of Bangladesh as an independent country. 

Notably, at that time Pakistan was close to both the United States and China. The only reason why those two countries did not intervene on the side of Pakistan was because of this Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation between India and the then-Soviet Union.

Second, India needs Russian help when it comes to servicing and providing spares for its existing military hardware. This is a big area of cooperation between India and Russia. India has a wide range of Russian military hardware in the different wings of its defense services whether in the Army, Navy, or Air Force. 

In the Navy, mention can be made of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier, now known as the INS Vikramaditya. In addition, the Indian Air Force operates the Su-30 MKI frontline fighter aircraft. Meanwhile, the Army uses frontline Russian-made tanks. 

In addition, despite the US threatening India with sanctions, India has gone ahead with the purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense systems.

Why India Needs Russia

In the geopolitical context, Russia has been increasingly isolated as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. By visiting Russia, PM Modi is sending a signal that come what may, India will not abandon Russia. 

Then there is the China threat. President Putin has been getting closer to Chinese President Xi Jinping. What is also worth remembering is that Russia is a P5 country (permanent member of the United Nations Security Council) and wields enormous importance in the global scheme of things.

Additionally, there is the energy question. India is the fastest growing major economy in the world and it needs a huge amount of energy resources. Already, India has been ignoring Western sanctions and buying an enormous quantity of energy resources from Russia. Much of this has been refined in India and is sold to other parts of the world.

Challenges

However, there are quite a few challenges when it comes to the Russia-India equation. 

The fact that New Delhi is under huge pressure to criticize Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine. However, New Delhi's response has been ambiguous at best. The India-Russia joint statement issued during this trip discusses this at point 74: "The Sides highlighted the imperative of peaceful resolution of the conflict around Ukraine through dialogue and diplomacy including engagement between both parties." This surely will not go down well in the Western capitals or in countries like Japan.

India is a part of forums like the Quad, which includes the United States, Australia, and Japan. All of these countries have imposed sanctions on Russia. Also, during the visit of the Indian PM to Moscow, Russia attacked Ukraine. The Ukrainian President responded with a tweet, expressing his displeasure with the visit to Russia by the leader of the world's biggest democracy. 

In addition, India has growing relations with countries like the United States. The bonhomie with Russia will surely test these ties as well.

The Japan Factor

Japan, on the other hand, has territorial issues with Russia. This is something that New Delhi would do well to remember. While Indian forces were part of the multilateral Vostok exercises organized by Russia in 2022, along with China and other troops, New Delhi opted out of the naval phase of these exercises out of deference to Japan. 

Tokyo is a leading partner for India in various fields now. Japanese PM Kishida last visited India in March 2023, before traveling to Ukraine. In Ukraine, he promised to supply Kyiv with $30 million USD worth of nonlethal equipment through a NATO fund. 

What Lies Ahead?

The elephant in the room is China. New Delhi would not like Beijing to get any closer to Moscow than it is now. This is because India faces its own China threat on its borders. Meanwhile, Russia (and its predecessor the erstwhile Soviet Union) has been a close ally of India.

What is certain is that India is not ready to leave its age-old relations with Russia in a huff and will keep its options open. The China threat and India's energy needs will ensure that India keeps its close ties with Russia intact in the foreseeable future.

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Author: Dr Rupakjyoti Borah
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are personal.