British Secretary of State for Defense Grant Shapps walks to attend the weekly cabinet meeting, the first since mayoral and local elections, at Downing Street in London, Britain, May 7, 2024. (© Reuters/Isabel Infantes)
"We live in a more dangerous world, authoritarian powers are increasingly aligned. Russia is receiving support for its war of aggression from China, Iran, and North Korea." This was the warning issued by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg in April.
Soon thereafter on May 22, United Kingdom Secretary of State for Defense Grant Shapps did not pull any punches in his keynote speech at the London Defense Congress 2024.
He declared, "An axis of authoritarian states led by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have escalated and fueled conflicts and tensions. They have increasingly been working together. And today I can reveal that we have evidence that Russia and China are collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine."
Shapps did not describe the "smoking gun" evidence he referred to. Some information has become public, however.
The fact remains that Russia could not sustain its invasion without the Chinese imports that power its war machine. And according to one prominent European economist, Russia has become dependent on war for economic growth. It finds itself in a position where it cannot afford either to win or lose the war.
Framing The Russia-China Relationship
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin declared in 2022 that a "no bounds" friendship binds China and Russia. That was just days before Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine.
Since then, Russia has drawn ever closer to Beijing's orbit, with bilateral trade reaching $230 billion USD in 2023. In fact, with Russia having become an international pariah subject to punishing sanctions, China has become that country's top trade partner, replacing the EU. Meanwhile, Russia is now China's main supplier of oil.
China has also become a lifeline for many products that Russians need in their daily lives, in addition to prosecuting the war.
Nevertheless, China adamantly insists that it is neutral in the conflict. It says it has not provided Moscow with lethal weapons and that the close ties between the two countries have been "deliberately misinterpreted." Beijing also vehemently dismisses charges that it is providing direct assistance to the Russian war effort as "groundless accusations."
Publicly-known Evidence
To date, there have been a few instances in which direct arms transactions have been discovered. For example, in June 2022, state-owned China North Industries Group Corporation Limited sold the Russian firm Tekhkrim 1,000 assault rifles invoiced as "civilian hunting rifles." From the start of the war, items like body armor, drones, and drone parts have also been shipped to Russia in copious quantities.
Still, in the past, the United States government assessed that China was not providing China with lethal aid on a "systematic basis." Indeed in April, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the BBC, "What's not happening is the provision of actual arms by China to Russia for use in Ukraine."
However, that appears to be by design. By providing dual-use components rather than weapons themselves, Xi has been able to support Putin while claiming plausible deniability.
Moreover, Beijing appears to be boosting technological assistance for Russia's war effort while strengthening bilateral military collaboration.
Is China's government directly involved in assisting Russia's invasion? That is a matter of semantics since sanctions evasion could not take place without at least the tacit approval of the Chinese Communist Party. After all, the Chinese economy is characterized by party-state-private sector collaboration and military-industrial fusion.
Analysis of China's Increasing Role
According to an analysis by the Carnegie Endowment, China exports more than $300 million monthly of dual-use items to Russia. Those are all items with both commercial and military applications. The list includes some designated as "high-priority items" by the US.
Carnegie Politika, the digital media platform of the Carnegie Russi Eurasia Center in Berlin, published a commentary by Nathaniel Sher on May 6 entitled "Behind the Scenes: China's Increasing Role in Russia's Defense Industry." The author notes that Chinese exports to Russia have surged by more than 60% since Russia invaded. They rose 26% in 2023 alone to $240 billion. That includes an estimated $300 million worth of "dual-use" items, including about 50 dual-use products categorized by Western countries as "high priority."
According to Sher, Chinese customs data itself shows that in 2023 some 90% of "high priority" dual-use items used in Russian weapons production were imported from China.
These are items essential to Russia's arms industry that it cannot produce itself. They include microelectronics, machine tools, telecommunications equipment, radar, optical devices, and some kinds of sensors. Clearly, sanctions have taken a toll. Russia would be hard put to procure such items were it were not for China. For example, its chipmaking capability is limited to decades-old technology.
Earlier, in March, the London-based Royal United Services Institute published a commentary entitled "Hi-Tech, High Risk? Russo-Chinese Cooperation on Emerging Technologies." It warned that the two countries were increasing cooperation on emerging technologies, such as 5G and satellite technology. For example, Huawei has agreed to provide technology that links Russian battlefield assets to several Russian companies. China is also providing Russia with geospatial intelligence. Russia can then use the data to create battlefield maps.
Change in US Outlook
Recently, the US has claimed that Beijing is engaged in a "systematic" effort to support Russia's foreign adventure by providing critical components. US officials reportedly briefed European allies on the extent to which China is now supporting the Ukraine invasion, thereby fueling the biggest threat to the security of Europe since the Cold War. They also urged their European counterparts to join Washington in pressuring China to reduce exports.
Furthermore, in recent weeks US officials have directly expressed concerns to their Chinese counterparts. They believe Beijing is providing substantial support to Russia's defense sector by selling it such things as machine tools, microelectronics, vehicle parts, and inputs for producing weapons and making war. That includes nitrocellulose, which is critical for manufacturing munitions and rocket propellants.
The Chinese counter that they are simply engaged in normal bilateral trade relations.
Sanctions and Other Consequences
On more than one occasion, the US government has also warned of "significant consequences" for any Chinese companies discovered providing support for the Ukraine invasion. Nevertheless, Chinese exporters have been openly dealing with Russian entities. Furthermore, they are disguising the transactions using third-party financial intermediaries, often in Hong Kong.
Already Washington has added over 100 Chinese entities to the Treasury Department's Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons list and the Commerce Department's Entity List. It also seems likely that more and more Chinese exporters and financial institutions facilitating such transactions that abet Moscow's war machine will find themselves subject to secondary sanctions and export controls by Western countries in the days to come.
China's Reasons
What then is Beijing's calculus?
Although Xi might find some of Putin's methods decidedly unsavory, he shares his desire to see Western influence diminished. He wants to create a new world order as an alternative to the American and democratic camp.
The Ukraine war also serves to divert Western resources and attention away from the Indo-Pacific region. Then there is the added benefit that Russia has become totally dependent on China.
China seeks to ensure that Russia remains a stable strategic partner. Its worst fear is a collapse of the Putin regime and Russia's transformation into a full democracy. After all, the democracy bug could prove contagious. No wonder top CCP officials remain concerned about regime change.
Xi's bromance with Putin may be akin to a loveless marriage but Russia is fundamental to China's grand strategy. Beijing is determined therefore to make sure Russia does not lose the war. That will be the overriding objective of any peace plan that Beijing proposes.
It is doubtful whether all members of the CCP are happy with the arrangement. At heart, China-Russia relations remain transactional.
China had to choose between aligning with the West or Russia.
Xi made the call.
The die is cast.
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Author: John Carroll
John Carroll is a Kyoto-based freelance writer and JAPAN Forward contributor.
