Speaking Out | Democracies Need More Ammunition to Counter 'New Axis of Evil'

On June 14, leaders of democracies at the Group of Seven summit released a communique expressing "deep concern" about China's support of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. "China is not supplying weapons but the ability to produce weapons and the technology available to do it," said United States President Joe Biden at the summit. "So it is, in fact, helping Russia."

As pointed out by Biden, China's support to Russia over the past two years has gradually been unveiled. For example, it was reported that excavators exported from China contributed much to constructing Russia's strong trenches. These led to the failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive in June 2023. In addition, China exported nitrocellulose used to propel rockets, as well as drones, semiconductors, ball bearings, and machine tools to cite a few examples.

The West is Inferior in the Number of Ammunition Rounds

China is not the only country supporting Russia. Russia is said to have launched about 4,600 Shahed suicide drones provided by Iran. North Korea has reportedly provided Russia with 1 million to 2.3 million rounds of ammunition and about 50 ballistic missiles. Russia and North Korea signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty on June 19, forming a de facto alliance. We should be aware that Russia will provide military technology to North Korea in the future. In turn, this would allow North Korea to give improved ammunition and missiles to Russia.

It is precisely these four countries that are strengthening their unity as a new "axis of evil." They are attempting to make rule by force a fait accompli. An April report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), an American think tank, said that 2024 would become a defining year for the Ukraine war. It recommended that Western countries prioritize the provision of high-performance weapons to Ukraine at a pace that exceeds Russia's weapon production expansion.

In particular, ammunition has greatly influenced the war situation. CSIS estimates Russia's annual ammunition production at about 2.1 million rounds. If ammunition from North Korea is added, Russia will get 3.1 million to 4.4 million rounds a year. In contrast, ammunition supplies to Ukraine from the West including the United States, Europe, and the Czech Republic-led supplier countries may be two million plus rounds in 2024 at most.

Democracies May Not Win the War

If this trend continues, pessimistic predictions from a survey of 17,000 people in 12 European Union member countries may come true. The survey was conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in January. When asked how the war would most likely end, the largest portion, or 37% of the respondents, cited a ceasefire through negotiations, anticipating Ukraine's compromise with Russia. Only 10% predicted Ukraine's victory.

For Japan, this is not just someone else's problem. All possible measures should be taken, including further strengthening of the domestic defense equipment production base. Additionally, Japan should enhance production cooperation with the United States. Japan must ensure that it does not run out of ammunition and equipment so that it can defend itself in the event of a Taiwan-Japan contingency.

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(A version of this article was first published by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Find it in Speaking Out #1158 in Japanese on July 1 and in English on July 2, 2024.)

Author: Kiyofumi Iwata

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Kiyofumi Iwata is a member of the Planning Committee at the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals. Formerly, he served as Chief of Staff of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.