Sri Lanka Begins Balancing Act to Keep China at Bay

The latest round of annual bilateral political consultation meetings between China and Sri Lanka have demonstrated the latter honing its balancing strategy in South Asia. Diplomatic consultations were held in Beijing in the third week of June to "review bilateral policies" as per Sri Lanka's foreign ministry. 

Sri Lanka's Secretary of Foreign Affairs Aruni Wijewardane led the Lankan delegation. The 13th round of diplomatic consultations was with Sun Weidong, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China. 

"While discussions are expected to review progress in the areas of bilateral engagement including on political, economic, trade, investment and defense […] some review on the bilateral policies will take place," the Sri Lankan foreign ministry stated before the delegation's departure from Colombo.

India's Concerns

The consultation meeting took place during a noticeable hitch in Beijing and Colombo's bilateral ties. This follows the latter's landmark January 2024 maritime decision against Chinese vessels. President Ranil Wickremesinghe's government imposed a one-year moratorium on all foreign research vessels from docking in the country's ports. It is aimed at preventing Chinese such vessels from conducting deep-sea research in its exclusive economic zone. 

China's growing maritime presence and activities in the Indian Ocean have become a continuing matter of concern. At such a time, the move is a testament to Colombo's balancing act and not falling overboard to please China. 

The ban follows strong protests by India, which had cited security threats from such research/surveillance ships. New Delhi has consistently been raising and conveying its concerns to Colombo for allowing a free run by China's survey, surveillance, and missile tracker ships. 

Sri Lanka banning the entry of Chinese ships is being seen as a win regionally. However, it also depicts the limits of smaller nations in big-power rivalries. 

Beijing's Economic Leverage Over Sri Lanka

China has long mastered the art of using economic leverage to achieve politico-strategic ends. It is a predictable weapon in Beijing's geopolitical toolkit. Sri Lanka is one of the most visible manifestations of this Chinese strategy. To maintain its strategic edge in Sri Lanka, Beijing continues to eye the country's strategic ports and strengthen its surveillance and domination in the entire Indian Ocean Region.

Beijing has kept a conspicuously low profile in Sri Lanka over the past two years since the latter's massive economic crisis. China's aggressive investments under the previous Mahinda Rajapaksa administration led to Colombo's excessive dependence on and debt to Beijing. This ultimately became a major factor in Sri Lanka's colossal economic debacle. Rajapaksa's actions triggered widespread protests across the country, and the government had to resort to declaring a state of emergency.

Under the garb of Rajapaksa's promises of political reform, the political influence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Sri Lankan politics accelerated unprecedentedly. Such promises ranged from constitutional changes to moving power from the legislature to the executive.

The political fall of the Rajapaksa clan in Sri Lanka became a classic case-in-point where the agenda of the CCP comes camouflaged in the promise of an economic miracle. The case of Sri Lanka's political and economic collapse in South Asia was out in the open for the world to see and learn from.

Treading a Delicate Tightrope

Sri Lanka's falling into a debt trap with China became synonymous with concerns that Colombo was beginning to lose a significant degree of its sovereignty in foreign policy and strategic matters. 

However, a nation ravaged by a 30-year war is unlikely to seek any new conflict either bilaterally or regionally. It is also likely to steer clear from entering any military/security alliances. Colombo's latest demonstration of maintaining a balancing act in the Indian Ocean Region is a step in that direction.

Over the past decade, Sri Lanka has faced a major foreign policy challenge: balancing its long-standing relationship with neighboring India against its chiefly economic-centered equation with Beijing. 

The Wickremesinghe government appears to have ushered in a carefully orchestrated phase in Sri Lanka's foreign policy. It involves seeking to balance relations with India while hedging its bets with China.

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Author: Dr Monika Chansoria

Learn more about Dr Chansoria and follow her column "All Politics is Global" on JAPAN Forward, and on X (formerly Twitter). The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect the views of any organization with which she is affiliated.