At the Kazan BRICS Summit, a Sino-Indian Thaw

The recent Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) Summit in Kazan, Russia, brought member countries together to discuss issues of mutual concern. This is important since the BRICS countries are not a part of forums like the Group of Seven advanced industrial countries. And there have been apprehensions that the G7 does not represent the voice of the Global South. Indeed, the African Union finally became a part of the G20 in 2023, at the G20 Summit hosted by India.

However, one of the most important outcomes of the BRICS Summit in Kazan was the meeting between the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Chinese President Xi Jinping. It was the first bilateral meeting between the two leaders in five years. 

Meanwhile, there is no denying that the BRICS countries still have a long way to go. It is clear, however, that the BRICS countries are now forging a new path in the field of international relations, especially with the addition of new members like - Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. 

Why is the Timing Important?

For India, the timing is important since of late tensions have emerged between India and the Western countries. Hence, India needs to show that it has other options when it comes to its foreign policy. 

After the spat with Canada, Washington also seems to be having a go at India over the issue of attacks on Khalistani separatists on Canadian soil and also on American soil. Hence, this has sown seeds of doubt in the Indian strategic community as to whether India can rely on Western countries.

What Is In It for China?

For China too, it is important to mend ties with India. Relations between Beijing and New Delhi have gone downhill ever since the fatal clashes between the two sides in the Galwan Valley along the Sino-Indian border in the summer of 2020.

China could also be preparing for tough times ahead on the external front. One of its greatest worries could be the return of Donald Trump in the United States. During his earlier term in office, relations between the US and China had reached their nadir. In addition, there is a new PM in Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, who has been a defense minister in the past. 

For China and Chinese companies, the Indian market is very important since the country has a burgeoning middle class. China also has a huge advantage when it comes to the bilateral trade between the two countries. In FY 2023-24, China emerged as India's biggest trading partner with a total trade of $118.4 billion. This is something that China would try to exploit in the times to come. 

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The Role of Russia

This meeting between PM Modi of India and President Xi Jinping of China is also a win-win for Russia and President Vladimir Putin. Russia remains quite powerful in global affairs, as this demonstrates. 

It is worth mentioning that the leaders of 36 countries across the globe attended the recent BRICS Summit, along with the Secretary General of the United Nations. 

For India, relations with Russia are very important since Russia. It is India's biggest supplier of oil. Without cheap Russian oil, India's economy will take a hit. Earlier India had been importing oil from Iran as well. However, it had to stop in light of the sanctions imposed by the US. 

Russia is still the biggest supplier of defense weaponry to India. Although India now imports defense equipment from a wide variety of countries, Russia remains the preeminent source of weaponry for Delhi. 

It is worth mentioning here that PM Modi had already visited Russia earlier this year on a bilateral visit, which was the first overseas trip of his third term. This assumes significance because his inaugural visits during his first two terms in office were to the neighboring countries.

What's In It for Japan?

Japan needs to be careful since peace on the border with India could free up China to act tough when it comes to countries like Japan and the Philippines. China could also be trying to test the new Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba to see his responses when it comes to the ties between the two countries.

At the same time, India, Japan, the United States, and Australia are members of the Quad, which has achieved remarkable progress in a wide variety of fields. 

The Road Ahead

When it comes to Beijing, the most important issue for New Delhi is the trust factor. In the past too, New Delhi has made attempts to improve its ties with China, but all these efforts have come to naught. 

In addition, China has been arming India's bête noire, Pakistan. Furthermore, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through Indian territory in the border province of Jammu and Kashmir. Hence, what is most important here is that New Delhi needs to verify before trusting China. And therein lies the catch.

In addition, China has not supported India's bid for permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Though the recent agreement allows for joint patrols in the border areas near the India-China border "Line of Actual Control," India will need to be cautious. 

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The good news is that following the meeting between the two leaders, New Delhi and Beijing have begun troop disengagement at the two friction points in the eastern Ladakh sector of the India-Sino border. New Delhi, however, needs to adopt a wait-and-watch policy from here on vis-à-vis China and its intentions.

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Author: Dr Rupakjyoti Borah
Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Research Fellow with the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies. The views expressed here are personal.