Politics & Security
Is War Against Taiwan Imminent? What is the Most Likely Scenario?
The CCP amended the constitution allowing Xi Jinping to hold power forever because he promised he would reclaim Taiwan. Here are 3 views on his options.
From April 8-10, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command completed a military exercise called "Joint Sword." They targeted Taiwan, and simulated precise strikes on critical targets in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense immediately responded by releasing videos showcasing the combat readiness of its troops and claimed to have a tight grip on the surrounding situation.
Meanwhile, the United States immediately announced that its missile destroyer had just conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait seems to be on the brink of eruption. And some predict that the CCP's invasion of Taiwan may be imminent. How far are we from a war?
Three Main Viewpoints
Currently, there are three main viewpoints regarding whether the CCP will attack Taiwan and how they might do so.
The first viewpoint is represented by YouTuber and Fei Tian College Professor Zhang Tianliang. He believes that the CCP will absolutely not attack Taiwan because their economic and military capabilities will not allow it. Xi Jinping is even afraid to put guns in the hands of soldiers because he doesn't know who the soldiers will shoot at after they have guns.
Also, the generals of the People's Liberation Army are both corrupt and afraid of death and are not willing to sacrifice their lives for the CCP. Plus, a lot of them have a large amount of money in the United States. They will oppose the war as they will fear sanctions from the US.
The second viewpoint is represented by former Peking University Law Professor Yuan Hongbing. He claims to have insider information from within the CCP that Xi Jinping has already decided to engage in a decisive battle with the US in the Taiwan Strait, and it will be a hot war. The timeframe is between 2025 and 2027.
The host of "Zoom In with Simon Gao" holds a third perspective.
She wrote in The Wall Street Journal, "Infiltrating, intimidating, and co-opting the opposition would be less costly than an invasion."
In her view, a military attack on Taiwan may only be the CCP's "Plan B". "The more likely scenario is a less costly takeover of Taiwan through a time-tested party strategy called the united front."
Xi Jinping's Motives for Attacking Taiwan
The following are more details revealed by Yuan Hongbing.
He said that because China's economic decline is inevitable, the era of using economic growth as the legitimacy of the CCP's rule is over.
For Xi Jinping, the so-called "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" has become the only excuse for him to stay in power.
Yuan Hongbing said, Xi Jinping and his co-Politburo Standing Committee members are the worst and most foolish people who grew up during the Cultural Revolution, and their souls are cursed by the ghosts of Karl Marx and Mao Zedong. Therefore, what Xi Jinping calls "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" is actually the dream of achieving communist rule over the world.
From this perspective, Xi Jinping is determined to bring the Chinese nation and the world to war. This is also the fate that Xi Jinping has imposed on humanity in the 21st century.
Simone Gao also says that according to the internal information she received, the reason why the CCP allowed Xi Jinping to amend the constitution so that he could be in power forever is that Xi had made a promise to the CCP: he would reclaim Taiwan with his power.
Some people also say that Xi Jinping has already added titles such as "Great Revolutionary" and "Great Thinker" to his name. However, if he wants to be on par with Mao Zedong and become a great "military strategist," taking Taiwan is a necessary achievement.
2027 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army. So if Xi Jinping can take Taiwan before 2027, he will have earned his "great military strategist" title.
War Readiness Preparation of the CCP
According to Yuan Hongbing, Xi Jinping has actually put China into a state of wartime readiness. For example, the so-called "supply and marketing cooperatives" system from the planned economy era has been reorganized into a supply system for the wartime economy.
Additionally, China has recently established a national defense mobilization system from the central to local levels.
As I reported earlier, cities of all sizes in China have established national defense mobilization offices.
Yuan Hongbing also said that according to internal CCP information, through the national defense mobilization system, the CCP has recruited over 7 million reserve soldiers, and has also established a combat series consisting of armies, divisions, regiments, and battalions to prepare for large-scale wars.
Local armed forces departments of the CCP at all levels have recently completed the registration and filing work of 42 million militia members.
Furthermore, prior to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping instructed the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to increase efforts to crack down on corrupt officials before 2025. The rectification of officials must achieve both political and economic success, and at least 1.5 trillion yuan, or $220 billion USD of illegally acquired assets must be confiscated from those officials.
And the money obtained through this will mainly be invested in the so-called military struggle preparation. A considerable part will be used to increase the number of China's nuclear warheads to 1,000 by 2025.
Deal Among Devils
Yuan Hongbing also said that Xi Jinping further strengthened the CCP's strategic alliance with Russia through his visit to Moscow. Vladimir Putin has promised to meet all of China's oil and natural gas supply needs and part of its food needs during the war with Taiwan.
And Xi Jinping's return to Putin is to continue to transport large amounts of military supplies to Russia through North Korea and Iran, using North Korea and Iran as "white gloves" to provide military aid to Russia.
At the same time, North Korea is training and equipping a special force unit of 50,000 soldiers to support Russia. And all of the equipment and supplies for this unit are provided by the CCP.
The CCP is doing this to ensure that Russia does not suffer a strategic defeat in the conventional war with Ukraine.
In addition, the CCP has rapidly upgraded North Korea's strategic missile and nuclear weapon miniaturization capabilities through financial and technical assistance, thereby forming a powerful strategic deterrent against Japan and South Korea.
Furthermore, the CCP has further strengthened its strategic alliance with Iran by facilitating diplomatic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, thereby putting the US at a strategic disadvantage in the Middle East.
In addition, according to Xi Jinping's instructions, the CCP's Foreign Affairs Department is strengthening its political and economic ties with the Communist Parties of India and Nepal. And it is beginning to provide large amounts of weapons and equipment to the guerrilla groups led by the Communist Party of India. This is to prepare to divide India from within in the event of a military conflict.
Most of Xi Jinping's Previous Policies Are Irrational
Yuan Hongbing also argued that the reason why some people think Xi Jinping will not attack Taiwan is that it is irrational to do so. However, these people forgot that most of the policies Xi Jinping has implemented have been irrational. Such as destroying the private economy, imposing a three-year lockdown, launching wolf-warrior diplomacy, and becoming isolated in the international community, etc. All those are irrational, but Xi Jinping has still implemented them anyway.
Another Motivation for Xi Jinping to Launch War
I believe that it is highly likely that the CCP will invade Taiwan. In addition to the reason Yuan Hongbing mentioned, which is that Xi Jinping is a fanatical follower of Communist ideology, another important reason is the various serious crises that cannot be resolved within Chinese society.
Some people say that if there is no revolution within Chinese society, then a war with other countries will inevitably occur. Chinese society is on the very verge of collapsing without a war. Therefore, a war could actually bring opportunities for the CCP amidst the new uncertainties.
As Zang Qichao, an equity expert in China expressed in one of his speeches, it would be easy for China to defeat the United States. That is because China has a socialist system that can only show its advantages in times of war and chaos, but not during peacetime.
He also mentioned that "what we are playing is the great revolution of the world's people." I believe what he referred to as "the great revolution of the world's people" is a final battle by the CCP and its new evil axis against the world.
The Best Option for the CCP: United Front Work Plus Blockade
As for how the CCP will "unify Taiwan," I am inclined to agree with Simone Gao's view that a combination of united front work and blockade may be the best choice for the CCP.
At the same time, all signs indicate that the CCP is actively preparing for war.
Yuan Hongbing also said that this year, the overall strategy of the CCP is to penetrate Taiwan's society more deeply through various united front operations. This is to gain the upper hand in the cognitive and public opinion wars in the 2023 Taiwan election campaign.
Then, the CCP will do everything possible to prevent the Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate from winning the 2024 election. Or, in other words, it will do everything possible to support the presidential candidate put forward by the Kuomintang Party (KMT).
As far as I can see, the CCP's best option is to create chaos within Taiwan in order to weaken the will of Taiwan's society to resist the CCP. And ultimately that would achieve the so-called "peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue." That is, to conquer Taiwan without a fight.
A very short video circulated on Chinese social media platforms can illustrate why this is possible. In the streets of Taipei, people are openly shouting and welcoming the People's Liberation Army to Taiwan to "protect people's lives and property," and promoting non resistance by saying that "Do not let our children become cannon fodder."
Previous Success: The 'Peaceful Liberation of Beijing'
The so-called "peaceful liberation" was already implemented by the CCP in 1949.
Beijing was handed over to the CCP by Fu Zuoyi, the commander of the Nationalist army stationed there at the time. That was a major victory for the CCP's so-called "united front work."
Fu Zuoyi's main confidant, Yan Youwen, was an underground member of the CCP. Fu Zuoyi's every thought and war plan was passed on to Mao Zedong by Yan Youwen.
More importantly, Fu Zuoyi's daughter, Fu Dong, was also a secret member of the CCP.
In November 1948, the CCP sent her to be by Fu Zuoyi's side to persuade her father to surrender, and to establish a channel of communication between the two sides. This was the key reason why the CCP was ultimately able to "peacefully liberate" Beijing.
After watching the video of people waving red flags and shouting to welcome the People's Liberation Army to protect the lives and property of the people in Taiwan on the streets of Taipei, who can say that the scene of "peaceful liberation of Beijing" will not happen again in Taiwan?
Causing Chaos and Division in the US is the CCP's Other Strategic Goal
It must be pointed out that causing chaos within the United States, tearing American society apart and making Americans fight among themselves, and losing the will to defend Taiwan, is also one of the CCP's important strategic goals.
I don't know exactly how the CCP is doing this, but from what has been happening in the US, we can indeed see that the internal rifts in American society are deepening. Some even predict that there will be turmoil or even another civil war in the US after the next election.
So for me, this is also very worrying.
CCP's Psychological and Cognitive Warfare
While the CCP's "Joint Sword" drills were conducted, the CCP released propaganda videos in a very high-profile way. And its intention is of course to create psychological pressure on the Taiwanese people.
At the same time, the CCP's repeated military exercises may not be just exercises. They may really be slowly implementing a blockade of Taiwan.
If the CCP only surrounds Taiwan without attacking, but cuts off Taiwan's commercial channels with the outside world, and at the same time uses high-pressure psychological and cognitive warfare to make the Taiwanese people lose their will to resist. And if there are people on the island who voluntarily raise the white flag to welcome the PLA to "protect" them, then the US and the international community would not be able to easily intervene militarily. Because this would truly become China's "domestic affair."
This is the CCP's best choice. If the result of Taiwan's presidential election in 2024 is not what the CCP wants, then it is possible for the CCP to organize large-scale assassination activities in Taiwan. That means assassinating the major anti-communist political leaders to create chaos, and so on.
In fact, the most terrifying aspect of the CCP lies not in its economic and military strength. Rather its in its unrestricted warfare that doesn't have a bottom line. And these are the things that I really want to remind the international community to guard against first.
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Author: Jennifer Zeng
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