Culture

Sakura Forecast 2024: If in Tokyo, Mark Down March 24

Sakura season is likely to begin around the average time or earlier in most regions, with Kochi on March 19, Kyoto on March 25, and Sapporo on April 30.

Published

1 month ago

March 20, 2024

Miruka Adachi

As spring slowly unfolds across Japan, the nation eagerly anticipates the arrival of one of its most cherished natural wonders: sakura, or cherry blossoms.

Spring is associated with new beginnings in Japan. In April, students begin new semesters, and graduates embark on new adventures. During this season of both excitement and uncertainty, the sight of sakura blossoms offers a delightful moment to step back and appreciate life.

On March 14, the Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) released its sakura forecast for 2024. It provides estimates of when the blossoms will start to open and reach their full bloom. The JMC's forecast is based on observations of Somei Yoshino trees, the most common variety with soft pink petals.

*The Benten-do temple seen from the sakura promenade, 2023.*

Estimates suggest that sakura season will generally start around the average time or earlier in most regions:

Kochi: March 19
Fukuoka and Nagoya: March 22
Tokyo: March 24
Kyoto: March 25
Kagoshima: March 30
Sendai: April 4
Sapporo: April 30

What Makes Sakura Bloom

Temperature plays an important role in a sakura's life cycle. Sakura buds are formed during the summer and go dormant from late autumn to early winter.

After being exposed to cold temperatures for a certain period, sakura awaken from dormancy, and the flowers grow in the warmth and sunlight of spring. In other words, sakura need both the cold of winter and the warmth of spring to bloom beautifully.

In 2024, it seems that the effects of a delayed "dormancy breaking" due to the relatively warmer winter months were offset by a warm spring, resulting in an average or slightly earlier sakura season across Japan.